000 AXNT20 KNHC 300000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Oscar centered near 26.5N 58.5W at 2100 UTC, moving N at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within are within 30 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to strong convection in bands within 200 nm east of the center. Oscar is forecast to accelerate north- northeastward on Tuesday ahead of a large mid-latitude trough, then move rapidly across the northern central Atlantic. PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 35W from 01N to 11N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm on either side of the axis from 03N to 11N. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 54W S of 14N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated showers are in the vicinity of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 07N18W. The ITCZ continues from 07N18W to 06N34W, then resumes from 05N36W to 06N49W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is within 300 nm north of the ITCZ between 21W and 31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N92W. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay of Campeche S of 24N between 90W-97W. Mostly fair weather is over the rest of the Gulf. Mostly zonal flow is noted at upper levels. High pressure will gradually shift into the SE U.S. and maintain benign marine weather through Tue. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf on Wed as a cold front moves off the Texas coast Wed night. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to Tuxpan Mexico Thu night, and from Tampa Florida to NW Yucatan by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the Yucatan Channel near 20N87W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean 19N to near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W-87W. Further South, a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 15N to include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and near the coast of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, trade winds with passing showers are across the remainder of the Caribbean. The stationary front will weaken overnight. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades will persist over the western Caribbean through Tue. Expect a return to fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to the central Caribbean waters through late week as high pressure builds into the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 32N66W to 24N70W to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers are within 90 nm SE of the front. A broad upper level trough over the W Atlantic N of 24N and W of 68W supports the frontal system. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 23N51W. Upper level diffluence east of the low is producing scattered moderate convection from 18N-23N between 45W-51W. A second cold front will move off northeast Florida tonight, reach from Bermuda to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken from 22N65W to the Windward Passage on Wed before dissipating late in the week. Swell associated with Hurricane Oscar well east of the area will impact the area east of 70W and north of 22N early through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell