000 AXNT20 KNHC 291656 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1256 PM EDT Mon Oct 29 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Oscar at 29/1500 UTC is near 25.8N 58.4W. OSCAR is moving W/NW, or 285 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 75 knots with gusts to 90 kt. Numerous strong rainshowers are within 50 nm of the center. Scattered moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 230 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. OSCAR will follow a trajectory toward the NE, and continue as a hurricane through Thursday. It will weaken into a tropical storm, and continue a NE movement for a few days after that. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are from 06N to 10N between 28W and 37W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W/53W from 14N southward. Scattered moderate showers are within 300 nm on either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ continues from 06N17W, to 05N34W, from 05N36W to 05N44W. Scattered moderate convection are from 05N to 07N associated to the monsoon trough. Scattered to isolated strong convection are from 06N to 09N between 27W and 33W, within 360 nm to the N of the ITCZ between 27W to 32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1022 mb high is centered over the north central Gulf of Mexico near 27N892W. Overcast multilayered clouds are over the Bay of Campeche S of 24N between 90W-97W. Mostly fair weather is over the remainder of the Gulf. In the upper levels mostly zonal flow is noted. High pressure will gradually slide from the north central Gulf of Mexico into the SE U.S. and maintain benign marine weather through Tuesday. Winds and seas will increase across the Gulf through mid-week as the next cold front moves off the Texas coas late Wednesday. The front will reach from near Panama City Florida to Tuxpan Mexico by Thu night, and from Tampa Florida to NW Yucatan by Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N77W to the Yucatan Channel near 20N87W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 18N92W. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Caribbean 19N to near the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W-87W. Further South, a cluster of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection are over the SW Caribbean S of 15N to include Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and near the coast of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, trade winds with passing isolated showers are across the remainder of the Caribbean. The stationary front will weaken through early this evening. Moderate to locally fresh NE trades will persist over the western Caribbean through Tue. Expect a return to fresh to strong trades from the tropical N Atlc to the central Caribbean waters through late week as the high pressure builds into the western Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 32N66W to 24N70W, to east central Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 120 nm SE of the front and 90 nm NW of the front from 22N to 25N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 60 nm either side of the front from 25N to 28N. A broad upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 24N and W of 68W supporting the frontal system. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 23N51W. Upper level diffluence east of the low is producing scattered moderate convection from 18N-23N between 45W-51W. The front over the W Atlantic will stall from near Bermuda to the southern Bahamas Mon. A secondary cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida to this afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to South Florida Tue, then stall and weaken from 22N65W to the Windward Passage by Wed before dissipating late in the week. Swell in excess of 8 ft associated with Hurricane Oscar well east of the area will impact the area generally east of 70W and north of 22N early through Wed. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MTorres