000 AXNT20 KNHC 281729 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 129 PM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Oscar at 28/1500 UTC is near 25.5N 53.8W. OSCAR is moving W, or 270 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 400 nm to 500 nm of the center to the E in a straight line. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 500 nm of the center in the N semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere within 330 nm of the center in the S semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 10N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 12N between 23W and 33W. Some of the precipitation is related to the tropical wave and some is related to the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/50W from 13N southward, based on long-loop satellite imagery. ITCZ-related and tropical wave-related widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 14N between 36W and 52W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 02N to 16N between 50W and 59W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland in Africa. The ITCZ starts at the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W, and it continues to 08N20W, 08N28W, 06N34W and 07N47W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 14N between 36W and 52W. Other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 14N to 23N between 40W and 50W. This area of precipitation is being stretched out, toward the northeast, by the upper level wind flow. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough passes through 32N77W in the Atlantic Ocean, across central Florida, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to 23N96W along the coast of Mexico, inland in Mexico beyond 21N102W. A stationary front passes through 23N80W in the Straits of Florida, across NW Cuba, through the Yucatan Channel, across the northern part of the Yucatan Peninsula, curving into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico at the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 25N southward from 90W westward. Broad surface high pressure spans the rest of the Gulf of Mexico. A 1022 mb high pressure center is near 27N92W. The current NW Cuba-to-Yucatan Peninsula stationary front will will meander about the NW Gulf of Mexico through Monday night, before shifting NE of the basin. A new cold front will push southward across the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Monday night through Tuesday, then become diffuse on Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong surface high pressure N of the front will shift NE into the Atlantic Ocean on Wednesday and Thursday. It will induce fresh return flow across the basin from late Tuesday through Wednesday, before the next cold front drops into NW Gulf of Mexico early on Thursday, and then it will reach from the Florida Big Bend to the SW Gulf of Mexico early on Friday morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 15N northward from 66W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is related to the upper level wind flow that surrounds T.S. Oscar. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is in the same area. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the rest of the Caribbean Sea from 66W westward. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N between 74W in Colombia and beyond Costa Rica along 85W/86W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the area. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are from 13N southward from 76W westward. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea today, except for fresh to strong trade winds in the south central sections. A stationary front passes through NW Cuba, to the Yucatan Channel, to the Yucatan Peninsula. The front will lift northward, while gradually dissipating through Tuesday. Long period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the northern waters of the tropical N Atlantic Ocean, and through the Caribbean Passages today, and dominate the seas through Tuesday night. Strong surface high pressure will move E across the W Atlantic Ocean from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday night. This will allow for a return to fresh to strong trade winds from the tropical N Atlantic Ocean to the central Caribbean Sea waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N69W to 30N71W, 27N74W, and across Andros Island in the Bahamas to 24N79W. The front becomes stationary at 24N79W, and it continues SW across NW Cuba, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 60 nm on either side of the line that runs from 25N71W to 29N68W beyond 32N67W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 70W westward. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 28N36W, about 950 nm to the ENE of T.S. OSCAR. It makes up part of a larger- scale E-to-W oriented trough, and cyclonic wind flow that covers the area that is from 25N northward from 40W eastward. The current Bahamas-to-Cuba frontal boundary will move SE, and reach from 30N65W to central Cuba by Monday evening. Long period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the far SE waters tonight, and continue across the entire area through Thursday. A second and weak cold front will move into the northwest waters late Monday afternoon and evening. It is expected that the front will become stationary, nearly E to W near 24N, and then across the central Bahamas on Wednesday. The frontal remnants will lift N as a warm front in the western half of the area on Thursday, in advance of the next cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico at that time. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT