000 AXNT20 KNHC 281205 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Oscar at 28/0900 UTC is near 25.0N 52.6W. OSCAR is moving SW, or 235 degrees, 13 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 55 knots with gusts to 65 knots. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are within 300 nm to 420 nm of the center to the ENE and E. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 420 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Isolated moderate rainshowers are within 300 nm of the center in the W semicircle. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT31 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT1. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for OSCAR are available via the WMO header WTNT21 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT1. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W/29W from 11N southward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 75 nm on either side of the line that runs from 05N30W to 08N27W to 10N25W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W/52W from 13N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 03N to 14N between 50W and 59W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 09N17W. The ITCZ continues from 09N17W to 05N28W, 05N31W, 06N47W, and 04N50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 13N between 36W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers also are from 13N to 20N between 43W and 48W. This area of precipitation is being stretched out, toward the northeast, by the upper level wind flow. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W to S Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N-24N between 89W-98W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N92W. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern Gulf by Wed night. The current NW Cuba-to-Yucatan Peninsula cold front will drift SE and become stationary across the NW Caribbean Sea and the SW Gulf of Mexico along 20N through tonight. A 1021 mb high pressure center is near 28N92W, and it will meander about the NW Gulf of Mexico through Monday night, before shifting NE of the basin. A new cold front will sink southward across the far northeastern Gulf of Mexico from Monday night through Tuesday, then become diffuse Tuesday night and Wednesday. Strong high pres N of the front will shift NE into the Atlc Wed and Thu and induce fresh return flow across the basin late Tue through Wed before the next cold front drops into NW Gulf early Thu and reaches from the Florida Big Bend to SW Gulf early Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered north of the area. An upper level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N80W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea today, except for fresh to strong trade winds in the south central sections. A cold front across NW Cuba and the Yucatan Channel early this morning will move slowly SE, and become stationary from W central Cuba to just N of Belize early Mon, then drift northward and gradually dissipate through Tue. Long period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the northern waters of the tropical N Atlantic and through the Caribbean Passages today and dominate seas through Tue night. Strong high pres will move E across the W Atlc late Wed and Thu to bring a return to fresh to strong trade winds from the tropical N Atlc to the central Caribbean Sea waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 26N-27N between 77W-79W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Tropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic. The front will stall and weaken from around 31N69W to central Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the northern Bahamas by Tuesday. The current Bahamas-to-Cuba cold front will move SE, and reach from near 30N65W to central Cuba by late Monday. Long period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will move into the SE waters tonight, and prevail across the entire area through Thursday. A second and weak cold front will move over the northwest waters late on Monday, and move SE through late Wednesday, where it gradually will stall, on a nearly E to W line along 23N/24N, and the S central Bahamas. The frontal remnants will lift N as a warm front in the western half of the area on Thursday, in advance of the next cold front that will be moving across the Gulf of Mexico at that time. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ss/mrf/mt