000 AXNT20 KNHC 280512 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 111 AM EDT Sun Oct 28 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Oscar centered near 25.7N 51.4W at 28/0300 UTC or 810 nm ESE of Bermuda moving WSW at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A turn toward the west and a slower forward speed are expected on Sunday, followed by a turn toward the northwest on Monday. After that, Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast Monday night or Tuesday. Additional strengthening is likely during the next couple of days, and Oscar is forecast to become a hurricane by Sunday night. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-27N between 49W-52W. Scattered moderate convection is also SE of the center from 22N-26N between 45W-49W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W from 01N-11N, moving west at 15 kt. This is another low amplitude tropical wave. SSMI TPW imagery shows the wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. A 700 mb trough is also associated with this wave. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-09N between 25W-33W. An Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W/51W from 01N-13N, moving west at 10 kt. SSMI TPW satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. This wave is also depicted on the tropical wave model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is from 13N-17N between 44W-49W. Isolated moderate convection is also from 05N-12N between 44W-48W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N16W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N30W to 04N49W. Isolated moderate convection is from 02N-05N between 20W-25W, and from 07N-10N between 36W-39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the Yucatan Channel near 21N85W to the Bay of Campeche near 20N94W to S Mexico near 18N95W. Scattered showers are over the SW Gulf of Mexico from 18N-24N between 89W-98W. A 1021 mb high is centered over the NW Gulf near 28N92W. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern Gulf by Wed night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered north of the area. An upper level high is centered over the SW Caribbean near 12N80W. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean through early tonight, except for fresh to strong trades in the south-central sections. A cold front across the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel tonight will move slowly SE overnight and become stationary from central Cuba to just NE of Belize early Sun, and gradually dissipate through Sun night. The fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean will diminish to moderate to fresh trades Mon through Thu. Long period NE swell from Tropical Storm Oscar will begin to move into the northern waters of the tropical N Atlantic and through the Caribbean Passages tonight and dominate seas through Mon afternoon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N70W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Scattered moderate convection is over the N Bahamas from 26N-27N between 77W-79W. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 60 nm of the front. Tropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. Surface ridging is over the E Atlantic. The front will stall and weaken from around 31N69W to central Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the northern Bahamas by Tuesday. Elsewhere, light to moderate trades will prevail over the tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 35W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa