000 AXNT20 KNHC 272343 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 743 PM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Oscar centered near 26.9N 50.7W at 27/2100 UTC or 800 nm ESE of Bermuda moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A turn toward the west-southwest is anticipated overnight, followed by a turn back toward the west on Sunday. Oscar is forecast to begin moving toward the north and then the northeast by early next week. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Additional strengthening is expected, and Oscar could become a hurricane after transitioning to a tropical storm later this weekend or early next week. Scattered moderate convection is from 22N-28N between 46W-52W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 50W from 03N-15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. This feature is also depicted in tropical wave model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection is from 11N-15N between 45W-51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W to 10N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N29W to 05N48W. Isolated moderate convection is from 01N-09N between 20W-32W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 24N80W to 22N90W, where it becomes stationary reaching the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the stationary front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern Gulf by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered north of the area. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean today. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf of Mexico will eventually push across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected over the south central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N72W to 24N80W with scattered showers. To the east, Subtropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from the Canary Islands near 29N15W to 25N22W to 25N30W with no significant convection at this time. The front will stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the northern Bahamas by Tuesday. Elsewhere, surface ridging over the Atlantic is weakened by low pressure moving over the western Atlantic from SE US and Sub T.S. Oscar. Light to moderate trades prevail over the tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa