000 AXNT20 KNHC 271716 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 116 PM EDT Sat Oct 27 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Subtropical Storm Oscar centered near 27.3N 48.4W at 27/1500 UTC or 900 nm ESE of Bermuda moving W at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected today and tonight, followed by a reduction in speed on Sunday. A turn toward the north-northwest is forecast on Monday. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next several days, and Oscar could become a tropical storm by early next week. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending along 49W from 03N-14N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 10N. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. This feature is also depicted in tropical wave model diagnostics. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N17W to 11N18W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N39W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 20W-28W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the southern portion of the basin from 25N81W to 22N90W, where it becomes stationary reaching the Bay of Campeche near 20N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the stationary front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. Another frontal boundary is expected to enter the northern Gulf by early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface ridging extends SSW from a surface high centered north of the area. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean today. A frontal boundary currently over the Gulf of Mexico will eventually push across the Yucatan Channel tonight. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected over the south central Caribbean through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends across the west Atlantic, analyzed from 31N74W to 26N80W with scattered showers. To the east, Subtropical storm Oscar is moving across the central Atlantic. Refer to the section above for details. A surface trough extends from the Canary Islands to 26N30W with no significant convection at this time. The front will stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A second cold front will move east of north Florida on Monday, then slowly move south and stall over the northern Bahamas by Tuesday. Elsewhere, surface ridging over the Atlantic is weakened by low pressure moving over the western Atlantic from SE US and Sub T.S. Oscar. With these, light to moderate trades prevail over the tropical Atlantic from the ITCZ to 15N between 25W and the Windward Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA