000 AXNT20 KNHC 270003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1006 mb low pressure center is near 25.5N46W. A broad arc of scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found on the NE side of this system within 90 nm either side of a line from 23N41W to 27N43W to 27N50W. Near gale force winds are already occurring to the east of the center, and this system could become a tropical or subtropical storm at any time tonight or tomorrow. An area of gale force winds is expected to develop E of the center by Sat evening. The chance of this system becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours remains high. The system is expected to move northward to north-northeastward over the central Atlantic through tonight, and then turn westward on Saturday, remaining well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave has an axis extending from 01N44W to 12N44W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present from 06N to 11N between 44W and 48W. TPW satellite imagery shows this wave to be embedded in a region of deep layer moisture. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough heads WSW from the coast of Guinea on the African coast near 09N13W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from 06N20W to 05N30W to 04N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 08N between 20W and 25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1003 mb low pressure over SE Georgia to the Florida Big Bend near 29N83W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 24N90W, then continues as a stationary front to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and up to 150 nm N of the front to the W of 90W. The SE Georgia low pressure center will move ENE tonight and drag the cold front across much of the Gulf of Mexico. The front will be nearly stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. A second and weaker cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by building high pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad surface ridging extends S from a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean high centered near 33N63W SW toward the Caribbean. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through Saturday. A cold front, that is crossing the Gulf of Mexico, will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel on Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday, before weakening again from Monday through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front passes ESE through coastal SE Georgia, to 30N69W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from 21N70W at the southern part of the SE Bahamas, to 28N63W, and beyond 32N62W. Rainshowers are possible from 18N to 22N between 54W and 70W, near a remnant cloud line. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 18N to 23N between 32W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N to 22N between 32W and 37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. A cold front passes through 32N51W to 27N57W and 25N67W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N between Africa and 30W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 32N20W, to 30N19W 29N20W, and to 26N23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 29N northward between 15W and 23W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 25N northward between Africa and 30W. The warm front will lift N of the area tonight as low pressure in SE Georgia tracks ENE. Strong E to SE winds E of Florida will continue through Friday, as a low pressure center moves across Georgia. A trailing cold front from the low will reach from 31N75W into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A weak cold front will move E of north Florida on Monday and Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy