000 AXNT20 KNHC 261759 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 PM EDT Fri Oct 26 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is near 25N46W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 360 nm of the low pressure center in the NE semicircle. Warming cloud top temperatures and weakening precipitation is within 270 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. The environmental conditions appear to be conducive for more development of this low pressure center. It is likely that this system may become a tropical cyclone, or a subtropical cyclone, later today or tonight while it moves generally northward in the central Atlantic Ocean. The chance of formation into a tropical cyclone, during the next 48 hours, is high. The low pressure center is forecast to turn westward, eventually, and to remain well to the north or northeast of the Lesser Antilles, through early next week. Please refer to the TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK, MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC, for more details. The 06-hour HIGH SEAS FORECAST gives the forecast of GALE-FORCE winds with the 1007 mb low pressure center, that is near 25N46W, as of 26/1200 UTC. Expect gale-force winds within 60 nm in the NE quadrant of the low center, and sea heights ranging from 10 feet to 12 feet. The forecast is for possible tropical cyclone, at 06 hours, at 24 hours, and at 48 hours. Please read the HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 42W/43W from 12N southward, based on long-loop satellite images. ITCZ-related precipitation surrounds this tropical wave. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 05N to 11N between 38W and 46W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, and it continues to 10N17W and 07N20W. The ITCZ begins near 07N20W, and extends to 06N22W and 06N41W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area from 04N to 09N between 10W and 24W, and from 05N to 10N between 47W and 53W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 11N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1005 mb SE Alabama low pressure center, through the Florida Big Bend, into the central Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 21N97W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are within 200 nm on either side of the cold front, from 22N to 28N, between the Florida west coast at 28N and the coast of Mexico at 22N. Rainshowers are possible also from 22N to 28N from 90W westward. The SE Alabama 1005 mb low pressure center, that is connected to the current Gulf of Mexico cold front, will move ENE through tonight, and it will be dragging the cold front across much of the Gulf of Mexico. The front will be nearly stationary from central Cuba to the SW Gulf of Mexico by Saturday night. A second and weak cold front will sweep across the eastern Gulf of Mexico from Sunday night through Tuesday, followed by building high pressure. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface ridge extends from a 1020 mb Atlantic Ocean high pressure center that is near 33N67W, to 27N68W, to 24N74W just off the Bahamas, across the Bahamas and Cuba, into the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. Broad mid to upper level anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from 72W in NW Venezuela beyond Costa Rica along 84W, continuing into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to locally strong rainshowers are in the coastal plains and in the coastal waters of Nicaragua. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere from 13N southward from 73W westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through Saturday. A cold front, that is crossing the Gulf of Mexico, will become stationary across the Yucatan Channel on Saturday night and Sunday. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday, before weakening again from Monday through Tuesday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front passes through coastal SE Georgia, to 31N80W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 30N75W, to 29N69W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from 21N70W at the southern part of the SE Bahamas, to 28N63W, and beyond 32N62W. Rainshowers are possible from 18N to 22N between 54W and 70W, near a remnant cloud line. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, covers the area from 18N to 23N between 32W and 50W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 19N to 22N between 32W and 37W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. A cold front passes through 32N51W to 27N57W and 25N67W. Rainshowers are possible within 60 nm on either side of the cold front. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N between Africa and 30W. A surface trough extends from a 1012 mb low pressure center that is near 32N20W, to 30N19W 29N20W, and to 26N23W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 29N northward between 15W and 23W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 25N northward between Africa and 30W. A warm front, extending from southern Georgia to 29N70W, will lift N of the area tonight as low pressure in SE Alabama tracks east-northeastward. Strong E to SE winds E of Florida will continue through Friday, as a low pressure center moves across Georgia. A trailing cold front from the low will reach from 31N75W into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from around 31N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. A weak cold front will move E of north Florida on Monday and Tuesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT