000 AXNT20 KNHC 250007 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A trough runs from 20N47W to a 1010 mb surface low, located near 19N49W, and continuing to 17N57W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 20N-23N between 44W-48W with scattered weaker activity from 15N-20N between 44W-47W. This system has become better organized since yesterday with increased thunderstorm activity, although the low's circulation is still not well defined. This disturbance is expected to move northward over the next couple of days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for development, and a tropical or subtropical depression or storm is most likely to form on Friday or Saturday. After that time, the system is forecast to turn westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles through early next week. The low has a medium chance of formation during the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 38/39W from 11N southward moving west around 15-20 kt. Scattered showers are from 01N-11N between 30W and the wave axis. Scattered showers are also from 01N-04N between the wave axis and 41W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of southern Sierra Leone near 07N12W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 05N37W, from 06N40W to 06N51W, and from 12N52W to the NE coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the showers mentioned above associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is located from 03N-07N between 23W-30W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted well south of the monsoon trough of the coast of Africa from 02N-06N between the coast of Africa and 16W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between Trinidad and the NE Coast of Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front over South Florida extends from south of Lake Okeechobee to Marco Islands into the eastern Gulf near 26N83W, where it becomes a stationary front. A dissipating stationary front is from 26N84W to 27N90W. A stationary front extends from 27N90W to a 1012 mb low centered near 28N96W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to 19N95W. Scattered rainshowers extend from near Houston Texas eastward across the northern Gulf of Mexico, mainly along and north of the front. Multilayered broke to overcast clouds are also near the low and within 75-100 nm of the Texas coast west of 95W. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N93W, moving through the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 22N southward between 89W and 97W. The low pressure in the NW Gulf of Mexico will lift N toward the coast of Texas through tonight, then ENE across the N central waters through Thu night, moving over the NE Gulf over N Florida by Fri. The developing low will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters Fri. The front will pass to the SE of the Gulf Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia to 08N80W in Panama, and beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. The monsoon trough combined with an area of weak upper-level diffluence in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea is enhancing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 09N- 13N between 77W-84W. Gentle to moderate trades will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through Sat. A cold front crossing the Gulf of Mexico will become stationary across Yucatan Channel Sat night and Sun. Expect fresh to strong trade winds over the S central Caribbean early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Aside from the convection mentioned above associated with the tropical wave, monsoon trough/ITCZ and the low in the Special Features Section... A 1010 mb low is near 28N65W with a cold front extending SW from that to the central Bahamas. Another cold front closer to Florida extends from 32N73W to 29N80W to just south of Lake Okeechobee. A N-S surface trough is also analyzed from 30N79W southward to the NW Bahamas. Scattered to numerous showers and north of 24N between 55W-70W. Isolated showers with abundant cloud clover is east of Florida and over the Bahamas. An E-W surface trough along 31N between 55W-60W is enhancing convection in the area. A 1012 mb low near 25N36W extends scattered moderate convection north of 29N between 20W-25W. Fresh to strong NE winds N of the cold front near Florida are expected through Thu morning. The front will stall tonight then transition to a warm front Thu night. SE winds will increase E of north Florida Thu night, NE of the front, as a low pressure system moves across the SE U.S. A trailing cold front from this low will reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas on Sat, then stall and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sun. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Hagen