000 AXNT20 KNHC 241803 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 203 PM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W from 12N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 10N southward between 30W and 41W. A surface trough is along 13N52W 10N53W 07N55W. Any nearby precipitation is part of the ITCZ precipitation. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 08N36W, from 09N39W to 10N51W, and from 11N54W to 10N61W. Disorganized isolated moderate rainshowers are from 12N southward from 50W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover the area that is from 13N southward between 53W and Trinidad and Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 18N92W, moving through the SW part of the Gulf of Mexico, and parts of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area that is from 23N southward between 89W and 96W. A stationary front curves from 25N86W, northwestward, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is near 28N95W. The stationary front continues from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to 18N95W at the northern part of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. A surface trough extends northwestward, from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to 29N98W in Texas. The comparatively greatest amount of multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers, from 24N northward from 94W eastward, and from 94W westward. Rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, in lines/areas of low level clouds. The current 1013 mb low pressure center will lift N slowly through tonight, and then ENE across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. The low pressure center will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters on Friday, with the front becoming nearly stationary across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from the Windward Passage, southward, toward the Gulf of Uraba, near the border of Colombia and Panama. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea from land to 12N between 77W and 82W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area that is between 67W and 80W. The monsoon trough is along 09N74W in Colombia, 08N80W in Panama, and beyond western Panama and southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 14N southward from 80W westward. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through Saturday. A cold front will become stationary across the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Disorganized isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 13N northward between 36W and 56W. This precipitation is associated with multiple areas of upper level cyclonic wind flow/troughs that are in the same broad area of the Atlantic Ocean. A surface trough is along 22N46W 18N53W. This system is expected to move northward slowly during the next few days, into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for development. It is possible that a tropical depression or a subtropical depression may form during the upcoming weekend, while the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. A cold front passes through 32N76W to 30N81W along the Florida coast. Upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a trough, from 26N northward from 59W westward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 28N northward between 60W and 63W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area that is 23N northward from 57W westward. A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure center, that is near 28N56W, to 25N70W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. A pre-frontal trough extends from the 1013 mb low pressure center, to 25N68W and to 22N72W. A surface trough extends from 19N48W to 15N47W. Weak upper-level troughing is present in this area, with weak upper-level ridging a few hundred nm to the northeast. The surface trough is expected to move slowly northward over the next few days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone development. A tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Isolated moderate rainshowers also cover the Atlantic Ocean from 10N to 20N between Africa and 35W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between Africa and 40W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 35N26W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate rainshowers are from 26N northward from 32W eastward. Other rainshowers are possible, elsewhere, from 20N northward from 40W eastward. A weakening cold front extends over the area from 31N79W to 30N81W, with fresh NE winds N of the front through tonight. SE winds will increase E of Florida on Friday, as a low pressure system moves across the SE U.S.A. A trailing cold front will reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, then stall and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT