000 AXNT20 KNHC 241204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Wed Oct 24 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W/35W from 12N southward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 27W and 41W. The 73W Caribbean Sea tropical wave from the 24/0000 UTC surface map analysis is a surface trough at 24/0600 UTC. The surface trough passes through the Windward Passage, southward, along 74W, to northern Colombia. Isolated moderate rainshowers are 67W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal/near the border with Gambia, to 10N21W. The ITCZ continues from 10N21W to 09N32W, 09N50W, and 09N60W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 02N to 10N between 27W and 41W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 11N southward from 54W eastward. Isolated moderate rainshowers also are from 12N southward between 54W and Trinidad and Venezuela. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 23N80W in the Straits of Florida and extends to 27N93W to a 1014 mb low pressure center at 26N94W. A stationary front extends from the low southward in the western Gulf of Mexico to 19N95W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along the front from 21N-25N in the southwest Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the front east of the low from 26N-28N between 89W-94W. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds cover most of the north- central and northeastern Gulf of Mexico north of 25N and east of 92W. Surface observations and ASCAT data indicate that winds around 25 kt are occurring north of the low in the northwest Gulf. The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift N slowly through tonight, and then ENE across the northern Gulf of Mexico on Thursday and Friday. The low pressure center will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters on Friday, with the front stalling, and becoming nearly stationary across the southern Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia near 10N73W, westward along 09N/10N to Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over northern Colombia and the southwest Caribbean from 08N-12N between 73W-76W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 10N-12N between 77W-83W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring over NW Venezuela from 09N-11N between 69W-73W. The rest of the Caribbean is free of any significant convection under mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea through Saturday. A cold front will become stationary across the NW Caribbean Sea on Saturday night and Sunday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N60W to 24N70W to 23N75W to 23N80W continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen along the front from 25N-29N between 64W- 66W. Additional scattered rain showers are north of 27N between 65W and the east coast of Florida. A surface trough is analyzed from 29N56W to 27N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N-32N between 50W-57W. A surface trough extends from 19N48W to 15N47W. Weak upper-level troughing is present in this area, with weak upper-level ridging a few hundred nm to the northeast. The surface trough is expected to move slowly northward over the next few days into an area where environmental conditions are forecast to be more conducive for tropical or subtropical cyclone development. A tropical or subtropical depression could form over the weekend while the system turns westward well to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. Mid-upper level westerlies are pushing moisture from the trough along 48W eastward across the eastern Atlantic. Widespread cloudiness along with scattered showers covers the eastern Atlantic from 25N southward to the ITCZ and monsoon trough and east of 48W to the coast of Africa. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 23N northward between Africa and 35W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N26W. Scattered to numerous moderate rainshowers are north of 30N between 22W-31W. Relatively quiet weather prevails in the latitude band from 26N-30N over the eastern half of the Atlantic Ocean. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish more and more today. SE winds will increase to the E of Florida on Friday, as a low pressure system moves across the SE U.S.A. A trailing cold front will reach from Bermuda into the NW Bahamas on Saturday, and then stall and weaken from 30N70W to central Cuba on Sunday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ah/dm/mt