000 AXNT20 KNHC 240005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A new tropical wave has been added to the analysis along 30W from 01N-10N. Scattered moderate convection is north of 05N between 26W-37W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from Hispaniola southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 66W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of northern Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, curving to 11N18W and 10N20W. The ITCZ continues from 10N20W to 10N28W, and resumes west of a tropical wave at 10N32W to 10N42W to 08N50W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms extend from 10N-20N between 20W-47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also over the west African countries of Guinea and Guinea-Bissau as well as the waters from 03N-11N east of 19W. Isolated showers are seen near the coast of NE Venezuela and Guyana as well as near Trinidad and over water from 06N-11N between 58W-61W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Straits of Florida, to 28N91W. The front becomes warm from 28N91W, and it curves northwestward and southwestward to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 27N95W in the NW Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1015 mb low pressure center to 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers are to the northwest and north of a line that runs from NW Cuba, to 24N90W, to 22N92W, to the coast of Mexico along 92W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The 1015 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the N central Gulf waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters Friday. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, westward along 09N/10N, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 11N southward between 69W and 75W over NW Venezuela and northern Colombia. Isolated showers and storms are over the SE Caribbean south of 12N between 77W and 81W. An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean 11N-to-22N between 44W and 53W area of cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic circulation center. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds are expected to become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea by Saturday night. A tropical wave, extending from Hispaniola to the Venezuela/Colombia border, is expected to become a trough tonight, then finally weaken and dissipate by Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N57W to 23N72W, through the Straits of Florida, into the NW Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 51W-59W. Scattered showers are also observed north of 28N between 65W and the SE coast of the U.S. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are observed N of the front and E of the Bahamas. A surface trough is along 21N52W 12N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 11N to 22N between 44W and 60W. An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the 11N-to-22N area of cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic circulation center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 21N northward between Africa and 35W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N25W. The stationary front over and east of the Bahamas will weaken tonight and on Wednesday, allowing the wind speeds and the sea heights to decrease in the area. The pressure gradient between high pressure over the NE United States and low pressure tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida will cause winds and seas east of NE Florida to increase Thu and Fri. As the low tracks toward the NE United States, the trailing cold front will head SE from Florida Sat, then reach the NW Bahamas Sat night. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Hagen