000 AXNT20 KNHC 231723 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 123 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W from Hispaniola southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are between 64W and 78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, curving to 11N18W and 11N20W. The ITCZ continues from 11N20W to 10N40W, to 08N50W, and to 09N60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from the coasts of Guyana and Venezuela to 11N between 59W and 61W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 03N to 20N between 20W and 50W. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are to the east of the line from 10N18W to 05N20W, to the Equator along 11W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front passes through 24N70W in the Atlantic Ocean, through the Straits of Florida, to 27N90W. The front becomes warm from 27N90W, and it curves northwestward to a 1014 mb low pressure center that is near 28N95W in the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The front becomes stationary from the 1014 mb low pressure center, to 19N95W in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and isolated moderate rainshowers, are to the northwest and north of the line that runs from NW Cuba, to 24N90W, to 22N92W, to the coast of Mexico along 92W, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Peninsula. The 1014 mb low pressure center will lift N toward the coast of Texas through Wednesday night, then ENE across the N central Gulf waters through Thursday night, moving across the NE Gulf of Mexico into north Florida by Friday. The developing low pressure center will drag a new cold front across the Gulf waters. CARIBBEAN SEA... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, westward along 09N/10N, beyond Panama and Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 11N southward between 76W and 82W, in the SW corner of the area. An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the Atlantic Ocean 11N-to-22N between 44W and 53W area of cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic circulation center. 24-hour rainfall totals, that are listed for the period that ended at 23/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC, are: 0.91 in St. Thomas in the Virgin Islands, 0.72 in San Juan in Puerto Rico, 0.68 in Curacao, 0.49 in Trinidad, 0.46 in Nassau in the Bahamas, 0.12 in Bermuda, and 0.10 in Guadeloupe. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean Sea during the next several days, with the exception of light to gentle winds in the NW Caribbean Sea. The winds are expected to become fresh across the south central Caribbean Sea, by Saturday night. A tropical wave, extending from the Dominican Republic to eastern Venezuela, will become a trough today, then finally weaken and dissipate by Thursday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N56W to 24N70W, through the Straits of Florida, into the NW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 23N northward between 50W and 67W. Other rainshowers are possible elsewhere from 20N northward from 50W westward. A surface trough is along 21N52W 12N53W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the area from 11N to 22N between 44W and 53W. An upper level E-to-W oriented trough extends from the 11N-to-22N area of cyclonic wind flow, into the central Caribbean Sea, into the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and then to a Belize upper level cyclonic circulation center. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between Africa and 40W. A 1014 mb low pressure center is near 34N25W. Expect fresh to strong winds, and seas as high as 10 feet, in the wake of the current stationary front, to the east of the Bahamas. The front will weaken tonight and on Wednesday, and allow the wind speeds and the sea heights to decrease. The surface pressure gradient, between high pressure in the NE U.S.A. and low pressure tracking NE from the Gulf of Mexico across northern Florida, will cause the winds and seas to the east of NE Florida to increase on Thursday and Friday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT