000 AXNT20 KNHC 230545 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An tropical wave in the eastern Caribbean is south of 20N along 68W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland south of 12N, affecting northern Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is primarily inland over central Africa, with scatterometer data showing the eastern extent of the ITCZ near 09N19W, continuing westward across the Atlantic to the coast of South America near 11N67W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 45 nm of the axis between 19W-45W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 23N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N89W, than a warm front to a 1015 mb low near 27N96W. Scattered moderate showers are north of 27N west of 90W. Scatterometer data shows moderate to locally fresh winds north of front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Expect high pressure W of the front to weaken through early Thu as the front dissipates. A low will develop over Texas Wed night, then drag a new cold front across the Gulf as it moves to the SE United States by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is within the basin. See the section above for details. The Eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from Panama to northern Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough axis. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse in the Windward Passage overnight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish by Thu night. A tropical wave over the east-central Caribbean will move across the basin through Wed and weaken. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will follow the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N56W to 25N69W, becoming stationary at that point across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida near 23N80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the cold front, and isolated showers are along the stationary front. A surface trough is analyzed from 20N50W to 13N53W, and water vapor imagery shows broad upper level diffluence is enhancing convection east of the surface trough. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, with generally fair weather. Expect the W Atlantic front to weaken through Wed, with winds and seas gradually diminishing across the western Atlantic.. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell