000 AXNT20 KNHC 221734 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 134 PM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 66W from 04N-21N, moving west at 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 12N, affecting N Venezuela. A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 90W and south of 16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis to include Belize and Guatemala. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 07N30W to the coast of South America near 10N60W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 02N-12N between 23W-31W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also from 12N-21N between 39W-49W. Similar convection is near Trinidad from 07N-12N between 58W-63W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida near 24N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 25N90W to 27N95W to a 1015 mb low over the NW Gulf near 25N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the low. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the fronts. Fresh to strong northerly winds are depicted in scatterometer data over the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of the low and front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Expect high pressure W of the front to weaken Tue through early Thu and allow the front to dissipate. A new low will develop over Texas Wed night, then drag a new cold front across the Gulf as it moves to the SE United States by Thu night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for details. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Widely scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection is south of 12N mainly affecting Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola during the evening and night hours today and tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish to the gentle speeds through Thu night. A tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean will slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will follow the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N58W to the Straits of Florida near 24N80W. Isolated moderate convection is within 30 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 19N52W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is enhancing convection E of the center. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. Expect the W Atlantic front to weaken Tue through early Thu allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa