000 AXNT20 KNHC 221157 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 757 AM EDT Mon Oct 22 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W from 05N-21N, moving west at 10 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered moderate convection is noted inland mainly south of 12N, affecting NE Venezuela. A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along 89W and south of 17N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis to include the Gulf of Honduras. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 07N34W to 07N45W to the coast of South America near 06N53W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 20W-28W. Widely scattered moderate convection is also from 13N-19N between 40W-50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from S Florida near 25N80W to the central Gulf of Mexico near 26N90W to 26N90W to a 1015 mb low over the NW Gulf near 26N96W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm of the low. Scattered moderate showers are within 120 nm of the fronts. Fresh to strong northerly winds are depicted in scatterometer data over the northwest Gulf waters mainly north of the low and front. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the basin. Expect the low to slowly move northeastward through Mon night, then east northeastward across the N central waters through Thu night and the NE Gulf by Fri, dragging a new cold front across the SW Gulf. The tight gradient will gradually slackens allowing for the fresh to strong winds to slightly diminish Mon through early Tue. These winds are expected to increase again late Tue or Wed as another low pressure forms over the NW Gulf and tracks northeastward toward northern Florida. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See the section above for details. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 10N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 75W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along this trough. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over eastern Venezuela and southeastern Caribbean where another tropical wave prevails. With these, scattered moderate convection is south of 12N mainly affecting Venezuela. Fresh to strong NE winds are forecast to pulse late tonight in the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. By early Tue afternoon, these winds diminish to fresh speeds. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades will continue through early Wed, then diminish to the gentle intensity through Thu night. The tropical wave over the far eastern Caribbean will slowly move across the eastern Caribbean through Wed as it weakens. East to southeast gentle to moderate winds will follow the wave. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 32N60W to the eastern coast of South Florida near 25N80W. Scattered showers are within 75 nm of the front. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 19N52W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is enhancing convection E of the center. Surface ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin with fair weather. The front will become stationary through the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front over the west Atlantic through tonight as strong high pressure slides eastward off the U.S. east coast. The high pressure and front will weaken by mid-week, allowing for winds to diminish and seas to subside. The gradient is forecast to tighten beginning on Thu east of NE Florida between high pressure to the N across the eastern seaboard and low pressure that tracks northeastward from the Gulf of the Mexico to across northern Florida. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa