000 AXNT20 KNHC 212358 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 758 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 63W from 05N-21N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands from 10N- 15N between 57W-65W. A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends its axis along is along 87W and south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N15W to 07N17W. The ITCZ extends from 07N17W to 08N28W, then from 08N32W to 07N41W, then resumes near 07N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm on either sides of the ITCZ between 22W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the Gulf waters extending from 27N82W to a 1016 mb low near 26N95W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to 20N97W. A pre-frontal trough is over the SW Gulf from 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is noted west of 93W. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly fair weather. The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with associated frontal systems. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above for details. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along 85W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-11N between 80W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 61W-68W. Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of Colombia and the SW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N68W to N Florida near 27N80W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. To the east, a surface trough is from 26N59W to 22N61W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing scattered moderate convection from 22N-34N between 49W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/MF