000 AXNT20 KNHC 211706 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 106 PM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 60W from 05N-20N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are present over the Windward Islands from 10N- 15N between 57W-65W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 85W from 08N-18N, moving west at 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 08N29W to 06N36W to 07N42W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is off the coast of W Africa from 06N-16N between 18W-30W. Isolated moderate convection is from 05N-14N between 33W-44W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the northern Gulf waters from 28N81W to 27N90W to a 1016 mb low near 26N96W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to 20N97W. A prefrontal trough is over the SW Gulf from 21N95W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 17N-24N between 94W-98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the fronts. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly fair weather. The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with associated frontal systems. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along 85W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-11N between 80W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is from 09N-12N between 61W-68W. Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of Colombia and the SW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N73W to N Florida near 28N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 29N54W to 22N61W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 27N and W of 70W, supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing scattered moderate convection from 22N-34N between 49W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa