000 AXNT20 KNHC 211207 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 807 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 58W from 05N- 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are present from 10N-16N between 59W-62W. The wave is now producing showers over the Windward Islands. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W from 08N-18N, moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W to 08N30W to 08N41W to the coast of South America near 05N52W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is off the coast of W Africa from 05N-14N between 19W-40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is over the northern Gulf waters from 30N81W to 28N92W, then becomes stationary from that point to a 1016 mb low near 27N96W. A stationary front extends southward from the low to 21N97W. A prefrontal trough is over the SW Gulf from 21N96W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 17N-23N between 95W-98W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the remainder of the fronts. 20-30 kt N winds are NW of the fronts. The remainder of the Gulf has 10-15 kt easterly winds with mostly fair weather. The surface low will persist over the NW Gulf through Tue with associated frontal systems. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the Caribbean. See above. The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. The tropical wave along 84W is also interacting with the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the SW Caribbean from 08N-11N between 75W-83W. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean indicating scattered showers. Upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of Colombia and the SW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N77W to N Florida near 30N81W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A surface trough is over the central Atlantic from 30N53W to 25N59W. Of note in the upper levels, a large upper level trough is over the W Atlantic supporting the cold front. An upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 28N54W. Upper level diffluence E of the low center is producing scattered moderate convection from 21N-33N between 48W-52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa