000 AXNT20 KNHC 210521 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 AM EDT Sun Oct 21 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 57W from 05N- 18N, moving west around 15 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows moderate to high moisture content in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are present from 10N-13N between 55W-60W. The wave could help to enhance showers and thunderstorms over the southern Windward Islands and southeast Caribbean through early next week. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W from 08N-18N, moving west around 10 kt. The wave corresponds with a 700 mb trough, as indicated by model analyses. Scattered showers are noted south of 10N and west of 80W, extending to the coasts of Panama and Costa Rica, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. Upper-level divergence over the southwestern Caribbean is also playing a significant role in enhancing this convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 13N17W to 11N20W. The ITCZ extends from 11N20W to 06N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 04N-13N between 20W- 41W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front is entering the northern Gulf waters, extending from 30N86W to 29N91W, then becomes stationary from that point to a 1015 mb low near 27N96W. A surface trough extends southward from the low to 19N94W. To the east, another surface trough is analyzed from 29N91W to 26N93W. A 1017 mb high is centered near 28N86W, leading to quiet weather east of 90W. The surface trough will persist over the SW Gulf through early next week. The cold front will continue moving across the northern Gulf waters overnight. It is expected to become stationary as it reaches from S Florida to near 25N97W by Sun evening. The surface low will lift northeastward through Mon night. High pressure will build across the waters north of the front and to the west of the low. CARIBBEAN SEA... The East Pacific monsoon trough extends eastward along 09N from Costa Rica to northern Colombia near 76W. Convection associated with a tropical wave along 83W interacting with the monsoon trough is described above in the tropical waves section. Farther east, Total Precipitable Water imagery shows high moisture content over northeastern Venezuela and the extreme southeastern Caribbean. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted along the northern coast of Venezuela. Scattered showers are occurring along the northern coast of Venezuela extending to 13N, including Trinidad and the southern Windward Islands. The remainder of the Caribbean is experiencing relatively quiet weather. Expect enhanced shower and thunderstorm activity to persist over the southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands, Trinidad and northern Venezuela into the middle of next week. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse over the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia through the next few days. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N51W to 26N62W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 28N50W to 25N54W. Scattered moderate convection prevails with these features mainly north of 23N between 47W-55W. To the south, another surface trough is located from 15N40W to 12N43W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N-14N between 39W-43W. The aforementioned stationary front will dissipate by this evening west of 65W. A strong cold front will move off NE Florida tonight, reaching from near 31N70W to 27N75W to near West Palm Beach by Sun afternoon, from near 31N64W to 26N72W to Miami late Sun night, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Mon evening, then becomes stationary. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind this front through late Mon before gradually subsiding by mid-week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA