000 AXNT20 KNHC 201156 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 756 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 49/50W from 02N-14N, moving west around 10 kt. This wave is depicted at 700 mb in model guidance, and moderate to high moisture is noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 09N-15N between 45W-52W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 08N-19N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 12N between 77W-84W, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 14N17W to 07N22W to 05N27W. The ITCZ extends from 05N27W to 03N39W to 03N46W. Scattered showers are noted within 210 nm north and 180 nm south of the boundaries between the coast of Africa and 39W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front over the southern U.S. ends just east of Galveston Bay Texas near 29N95W. A surface trough extends from 29N95W to 26N97W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 25N96W to 19N93W. At upper-levels, diffluence is occurring over portions of the western Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the western Gulf from Veracruz to the Louisiana/Texas border between 93W-97W. A frontal trough will persist over the SW Gulf through late Mon. The next cold front will reach the northern Gulf waters this evening, stretching from South Florida to near 25N97W by Sun evening. Then, the front will lift N as a weak low pressure develops along the frontal boundary over the NW Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Aside from the showers related to the tropical wave currently along 79W and the monsoon trough along 10N between 74W-84W, no significant areas of convection are observed elsewhere across the basin. However, satellite imagery indicates isolated showers and thunderstorms over southern Belize and southeast of the Yucatan Channel between the Isle of Youth and Belize. Weak upper-level diffluence is noted over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also noted over NW Venezuela and northern Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and near the coast of Colombia today. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N50W to 27N60W to 26N69W to 27N74W. A surface trough extends from 31N46W to 24N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails north of 26N between 44W-55W. To the southeast, another surface trough is from 15N38W to 08N39W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 11N-15N between 34W- 39W. Elsewhere, the rest of the basin is free of any significant convection, with the exception of an area of scattered showers from 18N-22N between 33W-40W. The aforementioned stationary front northeast of the Bahamas will dissipate today west of 65W. A stronger cold front will move off NE Florida this evening, and will reach from 31N66W to South Florida by Sun evening, and from 26N65W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys by Mon evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected behind the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen/ERA