000 AXNT20 KNHC 200517 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 117 AM EDT Sat Oct 20 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W from 03N-14N, moving west at 10 kt. This wave is depicted at 700 mb in model guidance and moderate to high moisture is noted in the wave's environment. Scattered showers are from 09N-15N between 45W-52W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W from 08N-19N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 12N between 77W-80W, where the wave meets the monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast Africa near 10N14W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 02N46W. Scattered showers are noted along the boundaries between 18W-38W. GULF OF MEXICO... A tail end of a weakening stationary front extends across west- central Florida. To the west, a dissipating stationary front reaches the northwest Gulf waters along 96W and north of 26N. A surface trough extends from 24N96W to 19N94W. Scattered moderate convection is over the western Gulf of Mexico west of 93W. The weakening stationary front across the northwest Gulf will dissipate overnight. A frontal trough will persist west of 95W-96W through early Sun. A cold front will enter the Gulf waters on Saturday, extending from central Florida to southern Texas by Sunday, then stalling from S Florida to the Texas/Mexico border by Sunday night and Monday. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of upper-level diffluence near the north coast of Venezuela has been responsible for enhanced convection over the ABC Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands and northern Venezuela during the past 24-36 hours. Currently, scattered moderate convection is noted over the NE coast of Venezuela and adjacent islands south of 12N between 64W-69W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring inland over western Venezuela and eastern Colombia. Aside from the showers related to the tropical wave currently along 79W and the monsoon trough along 11N between 76W-84W, no significant convection is observed elsewhere across the basin. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region through early next week. Occasionally strong winds are expected near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba today. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front passes through 32N48W to 26N65W to 27N74W, then becomes weak to 28N83W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the front mainly north of 28N. A surface trough is from 30N46W to 26N48W. Scattered showers are along the trough. To the southeast, another surface trough is from 15N38W to 11N39W with scattered moderate convection. Fresh NE winds and building seas are expected north of the front over the western Atlantic tonight before diminishing towards the morning as the front continues to weaken. A stronger cold front will move off northern Florida by Saturday night, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas expected behind the front through early next week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA