000 AXNT20 KNHC 191736 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 136 PM EDT Fri Oct 19 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W from 03N to 14N moving west at 10 kt. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of the wave axis from 05N-13N. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W from 09N-19N moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-15N between 75W-79W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea from 11N15W to 09N16W. The ITCZ extends from 09N16W to 06N20W to 04N30W to 04N41W. The ITCZ resumes west of the tropical wave along 46W at 09N48W and extends to 09N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along and within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough near the west coast of Africa. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present within 180 nm north and 270 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W-34W. Farther west, scattered moderate convection is along and within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 53W-58W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends westward from Clearwater Florida near 28N83W to a 1016 mb low near 28N96.5W. The stationary front continues southward to 23N95W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front, which continues to 20N95W. A trough extends from 19N94W to 17N94W. Scattered moderate convection is over the western Gulf of Mexico west of 94W. The E-W portion of the stationary front across the northern and western Gulf will slowly dissipate through this evening. A frontal trough will persist west of 94W through early Sun. Winds and seas will diminish in the western Gulf as the front weakens. A cold front will enter the Gulf waters Sat, extend from central Florida to southern Texas Sun, stall and weaken from S Florida to the Texas/Mexico border Sun night and Mon, then lift northward as a warm front early next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... An area of upper-level diffluence near the north coast of Venezuela has been responsible for enhanced convection over the ABC Islands, Trinidad and Tobago, southeast Caribbean, southern Windward Islands and northern Venezuela during the past 24 hours. 24-hour rainfall totals that are listed for the period that ended at 19/1200 UTC, according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES, MIATPTPAN/ SXCA01 KNHC, are 1.93 inches in Trinidad 1.61 in Curacao. Currently, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the NE coast of Venezuela and over Trinidad from 09N-12N between 60W-64W. Scattered moderate convection is also seen near and over portions of the ABC Islands from 10N-13N between 65W-70W. Scattered thunderstorms are also occurring inland over western Venezuela. Upper-level troughing is over the NW Caribbean near the north coast of Honduras and west of 85W while upper-level ridging is over the southwest Caribbean from Jamaica and NE Honduras southward. In between, there is an area of upper-level diffluence, helping to enhance scattered showers and thunderstorms from 15N- 22N between 81W-88W. These showers thunderstorms are occurring over the Yucatan Channel and over Belize. This activity is associated with a large area of enhanced moisture over the western Caribbean Sea and will be spreading west over the Yucatan Peninsula and northern portions of Central American over the next 12 to 24 hours. The east Pacific Monsoon Trough extends over the SW Caribbean along 10N from Costa Rica to 78W. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate with embedded isolated strong convection from the north coast of Panama to 11N between 77W-82W. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across most of the region through Tue night. Occasionally strong winds are expected near the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and south of E Cuba through Sat. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front passes through 32N52W to 27N65W to S of Cape Canaveral Florida near 28N80W. Scattered moderate rainshowers are near the front east of 62W with only isolated showers west of 62W. A surface trough is from 27N51W to 19N57W. Scattered showers are well southeast of the trough axis from 17N-23N between 44W-53W. Another surface trough is from 15N35W to 12N36W. Scattered showers are noted in a W-E line from 11N-13N between 28W-42W. A small upper level low is near 25N42W. An upper-level trough axis extends from near 27N47W to 20N55W to the Virgin Islands to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected north of the aforementioned front over the western Atlantic today before diminishing tonight as the front weakens. A stronger cold front will move off northern Florida Sat night, with fresh to strong NE winds and building seas expected behind the front through Mon night as the front extends from 29N65W to 25N70W to 24N80W by early Tue. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen