000 AXNT20 KNHC 170439 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1238 AM EDT Wed Oct 17 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0415 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1002 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N91W. This low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico. This weather system is expected to move westward with time. The probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please, refer to your local meteorological service for specific information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern. A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a 1016 mb low pressure center that is near 27N94W. The stationary front continues from the 1016 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. The forecast consists of NW-to-N GALE-force winds from 25N southward from the front westward. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 14 feet. Expect the GALE-force winds to continue for nearly the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 24W/26W from 15N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 04N to 16N between Africa and 30W. A tropical wave is along 60W/61W from 21N southward. It is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 21N between 50W and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may be more related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W from 20N and SE Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 08N24W. The ITCZ is along 08N28W 04N36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the rest of the area from 10N southward from 40W eastward. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 05N to 10N between 45W and 50W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is in the western part of the area, passing through southern Louisiana, into the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Gale-force winds are associated with the front. Please reference the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more details. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 27N southward from 91W westward. An upper level inverted trough is on top of the area of the stationary front. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N southward from 88W eastward. This cyclonic wind flow is part of the larger-scale area of cyclonic wind flow, that also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward, across the Bahamas, and in the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. The current N gale-force winds, that are to the west of the stationary front, will persist through Thursday, with fresh to strong winds N of there and behind the front. The wind speeds will diminish to less than gale force on Thursday night and Friday, as the front weakens. It is possible that the front may be reinforced, and pushed E late during the upcoming weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for more information about heavy rainfall that is associated with the Central American Gyre, and the 1001 mb low pressure center that is in Mexico, just outside the border with Guatemala, near 16N91W. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail through the next several days, except locally strong near the Gulf of Honduras, the approach to the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and in the Lee of eastern Cuba, through the end of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 27N southward from 70W westward, across the Bahamas, and in the Caribbean Sea from Puerto Rico westward. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N southward between 60W and 70W, and from 27N southward from 70W westward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 50W eastward. A surface trough is along 24N37W 20N36W 16N36W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are in the area of upper level cyclonic wind flow. Gentle to moderate return flow N of 27N, and moderate to fresh trade winds S of 27N, will prevail through Wednesday night, with surface high pressure NE of the area. A backdoor cold front will drop S of 31N on Thursday, with freshening winds and building seas through Friday, before decreasing on Saturday. It is possible that another cold front may enter the NW part of the area on Saturday night, once again with increasing winds and building seas behind the front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT