000 AXNT20 KNHC 170005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Tue Oct 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A 1007 mb low pressure center is in Guatemala near 16N90W. This low pressure center is part of a broad area of low pressure, a Central American Gyre. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers cover Central America and Mexico. This weather system is expected to move westward with time. The probability of tropical cyclone development for the Atlantic Basin is low. The potential for inland heavy rainfall, flash flooding and mudslides over areas of mountainous terrain is high. Please, refer to your local meteorological service for specific information about this potentially dangerous weather pattern. A stationary front passes through south central Louisiana to a 1015 mb low pressure center that is near 29N94W. The stationary front continues from the 1015 mb low pressure center, to 23N95W, to the coast of Mexico near 19N96W, and it curves westward and northwestward to 20N99W, inland in Mexico, to 25N101W. NW-to-N GALE-force winds are from 26N southward from the front westward. Expect sea heights to range from 8 feet to 12 feet. Expect the GALE-force winds to continue for another 24 hours or so. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/28W from 14N southward. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that is from 05N to 17N between Africa and 30W. A tropical wave is along 60W from 21N southward. It is moving through the area of the islands of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean Sea from 08N to 23N between 55W and 63W. It is possible that some of this precipitation also may be more related to the ITCZ. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W/76W from 20N and SE Cuba southward. Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow also is in the area. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida southward from 70W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N15W to 09N18W. The ITCZ extends from 09N18W to 09N24W. The ITCZ resumes W of a tropical wave near 08N28W and extends to the coast of South America near 00N49W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front is over the W Gulf of Mexico. A Gale is in the cold sector S of 26W. See the special features section above. Scattered moderate convection is over the NW Gulf from 28N-30N between 93W-94W. Similar convection is over the Bay of Campeche from 19N-22N between 95W-98W. Scattered showers are over the central Gulf from 22N-26N between 88W-92W. The remainder of the Gulf has mainly 10-15 kt E to SE surface winds, and mostly fair weather. The front is expected to remain stationary for the next few days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave over the central Caribbean is forecast to become diffuse and ill-defined by Wed. Another tropical wave is forecast to move into the eastern Caribbean tonight. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and the SW Caribbean from 08N-15N between 81W-85W. Scattered moderate convection is over N Colombia from 04N-10N between 72W-78W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the northern Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola, from 18N-20N between 60W-72W. This convection is mostly due to upper level diffluence. See the special features section above for more information about heavy rainfall associated with the Central American Gyre. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See above about the tropical waves in the tropical Atlantic. A 1023 mb high is located over the W Atlantic near 33N65W. pressure prevails across the Atlantic. A surface trough is in the east-central Atlantic from 26N38W to 17N35W enhancing trade wind showers north of 19N between 30W-45W. This area of showers is moving west at 10-15 kt. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT