000 AXNT20 KNHC 140556 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 156 AM EDT Sun Oct 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 37W from 01N-12N, moving west around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery indicates abundant moisture in its environment. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring within 240 nm west of the wave axis and 60 nm east of the wave axis from from 04N-10N. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next day or two before environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. A tropical wave extends its axis along 46W from 08N46W to a 1013 mb low near 16N46W to 21N46W. The wave is moving west at 15-20 kt. These features are the remnants of Nadine. A 700 mb trough is depicted by model analyses with the wave, and there is a local maximum in TPW. Scattered showers are noted from 15N-19N between 43W-47W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also noted along the southern portion of the wave from 08N-11N extending westward from the wave to 53W. Moisture with this tropical wave could enhance showers and thunderstorms over the Lesser Antilles Tue into early Wed accompanied with fresh to strong winds and associated seas over the eastern Caribbean. A tropical wave that had previously become diffuse has become better defined again along 57/58W and is moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen from 15N-19N between 56W-59W. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are likely for the Leeward and northern Windward Islands this afternoon and tonight, spreading to the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Mon. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Africa near the Senegal/Guinea-Bissau border near 12N17W and extends to 09N22W. The ITCZ extends from 09N22W to 07N33, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N39W to northern French Guiana near 05N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along the west coast of Africa well south of the monsoon trough near the coast of southern Guinea and northern Sierra Leone. GULF OF MEXICO... A dissipating stationary front extends south of Everglades City, FL near 26N81W to 23N84W to 22N87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring over western Cuba and the adjacent waters just off the northern coast of western Cuba. Dry air prevails north of the front across nearly all of the Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the west coast of the Yucatan and far eastern Bay of Campeche. The remnants of the front will lift N Sun through Mon morning ahead of the next cold front which will enter the far NW and W central Gulf by Tue morning. This new front will stall from S central Louisiana to the western Gulf along 96W through Thu night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are likely behind that front starting Tue night. Showers and thunderstorms will become likely over the far NW Gulf late Monday and Monday night ahead of this front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad 1009 mb low is centered near 14N81W. A trough extends from the low northward to 19N81W. Another trough extends ENE from the low to 16N74W. The monsoon trough extends W from the low over Central America. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues over central Nicaragua and southern Honduras. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms cover the southwest Caribbean west of 77W and south of 16N. The broad low will slowly shift W toward central America through Mon. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue over the western Caribbean and Central America during the next few days. Over the east-central Caribbean, shower and thunderstorm activity has generally decreased somewhat over the past 24 hours. However, abundant cloudiness and scattered showers still persist over the region. In terms of sky cover and convection, expect weather conditions to improve slightly today between 63W-70W compared to the last couple days. Two tropical waves will affect the Lesser Antilles over the next few days. See the tropical waves section for more details. High pressure building over the W Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, Hispaniola adjacent waters and along the coast of Colombia Tue night through early Thu. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere through the upcoming week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are in the Tropical Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and the coast of Africa. See the Tropical Waves section above for details. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N68W to 28N76W, where it becomes a stationary front. The stationary front extends from 28N76W to near West Palm Beach Florida. Isolated showers prevail within 120 nm southeast of the front near the northwest Bahamas and the waters to the northeast of the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers are also within 150 nm southeast of the front north of 30N. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed north of the Dominican Republic from 25N69W to 20N70W. Scattered showers are east of the trough north of Puerto Rico from 19N-23N between 60W-69W. Farther east, a stationary front extends from 32N17W to 31N24W to 32N27W. A surface trough is from 32N12W to 29N16W. Overcast low clouds are noted in the area of the front and trough with only isolated light showers. A 1026 mb high is centered near 34N34W, leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 30W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen