000 AXNT20 KNHC 140004 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Leslie has transitioned to a post-tropical cyclone, and NHC issued the final advisory at 13/2100 UTC. Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie is centered near 40.5N 09.5W at 13/2100 UTC or about 75 nm SSW of Porto, Portugal or about 110 N of Lisbon, Portugal moving NE at 30 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. This northeast motion is expected to continue until the center makes landfall in Portugal around 14/0000 UTC. Dissipation is expected over northern Spain late Sunday. See the final NHC forecast/advisory on Leslie under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Interests in Portugal can find products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 35/36W from 00N-11N, moving west around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough is shown by model analyses with this wave. TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in its environment. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N-10N between 33W-42W. Some slight development of this system is possible during the next day or two before environmental conditions become unfavorable for tropical cyclone formation. A tropical wave extends its axis along 44W from 08N44W to a 1013 mb low near 16N44W to 20N43W. The wave is moving west around 15 kt. These features are the remnants of Nadine. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N-19N between 41W-45W. The tropical wave that was previously along 56W from 08N-21N has been dropped from the analysis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 12N20W. The ITCZ extends from 12N21W to 09N25W to 08N32W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N38W to northern French Guiana near 05N54W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 36W, isolated to scattered showers are located 120 nm to 310 nm north of the ITCZ between 45W-54W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from Cape Sable, Florida to the Dry Tortugas to 22N88W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring well ahead of the front over western Cuba. Dry air prevails north of the front across nearly all of the Gulf. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the west coast of the Yucatan and far eastern Bay of Campeche. The stationary front will continue to weaken and wash out tonight. The remnants of the front will then lift N Sun through Mon morning. Another stationary front extends from Jacksonville Florida to Apalachicola Florida to near Biloxi Mississippi. No convection is noted with this front. Another cold front will enter the far NW and W central Gulf by Tue afternoon. This new front will stall from S central Louisiana to the western Gulf along 96W through Wed night. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are likely behind that front starting Tue night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Over the eastern and central Caribbean, ample moisture is present along with persistent disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. These showers and thunderstorms are affecting the northern Leeward Islands, Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico and most of the eastern Caribbean east of 73W and north of 12N. Over the western Caribbean, a broad 1010 mb low is analyzed near 14N81W. A surface trough extends from the low to 19N81W. GOES-16 Total Precipitable water shows high moisture content over this region. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 11N-17N between 76W and Nicaragua. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over the northern two-thirds of Nicaragua, much of Honduras and southern Guatemala. The broad low will slowly move west toward Central America through early next week. Widespread enhanced convection is expected to persist over the western Caribbean and central America into early next week. Another surface trough is located over the Yucatan Peninsula and Belize with scattered showers. Moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the basin through most of the period. However, high pressure building over the W Atlc will support fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras, Windward Passage, Hispaniola adjacent waters and along the coast of Colombia Tue night through early Thu. Otherwise, a tropical wave, remnants of Nadine, will reach the Lesser Antilles Tue night accompanied with fresh to strong winds and associated seas. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information on Post-tropical Cyclone Leslie, the remnants of Nadine (now a tropical wave) and the tropical wave along 36. A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N70W to near Miami Florida. Scattered showers prevail about within 270 nm southeast of the front. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed north of the Dominican Republic from 25N69W to 20N70W moving westward. The trough is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico to 23N between 60W-69W. Farther east, a cold front extends south of Leslie from 32N17W to 31N28W. A surface trough is from 31N14W to 26N21W. No significant convection is noted. A 1025 mb high is centered near 33N37W, leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 43W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen/ERA