000 AXNT20 KNHC 131740 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 139 PM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Leslie centered near 38.0N 12.6W at 13/1500 UTC or 170 nm WSW of Lisbon Portugal moving NE at 29 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. This northeast motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours with a decrease in forward speed. On this track, the center of Leslie will be near the southwestern portion of the Iberian peninsula later today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A low amplitude tropical wave extends its axis along 35W from 00N-10N, moving west at 5-10 kt. This wave is noted in model guidance and TPW imagery shows abundant moisture in its environment. At this time, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail from 03N-10N between 30W-40W. A tropical wave extends its axis along 42W from 08N42W to a 1012 mb low near 17N42W to 20N42W. The wave is moving west at 10-15 kt. These features are the remnants of Nadine. Scattered moderate convection is noted with the low mainly north of 18N between 35W-42W. The tropical wave extends its axis along 56W from 08N-21N based on satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Movement is westward at 5-10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. Scattered showers prevail from 15N-20N between 55W- 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 10N31W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 05N37W to 06N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical wave along 35W, scattered moderate convection is noted within 75 nm of the ITCZ near 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A stationary front extends from 25N81W to 21N90W, then it weakens to 24N97W. No significant convection is currently occurring with the front, and dry air prevails north of it covering the majority of the basin. Scattered showers cover the southern portion of the Bay of Campeche south of 20N between 90W-94W. The front will continue to weaken and wash out as it drifts slowly southward today. High pressure is building in over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front will approach the NW Gulf by Mon night, but will stall across the western Gulf through Wed night. Behind the front, expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas, with near-gale force winds likely along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is centered near 18N81W. To the southeast, ample moisture is present along with persistent shower and thunderstorm activity. These showers and thunderstorms are affecting eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend across the eastern Caribbean from the coast of Venezuela to Puerto Rico between 63W-70W. A Central American Gyre has formed in the southwest Caribbean. GOES-16 Total Precipitable water clear shows large scale rotation associated with the gyre. A surface trough is analyzed through the developing gyre from 20N80W to a 1009 mb low near 14N81W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N-13N between 72W- 82W. This gyre, will slowly shift W toward central America through early next week. This convection is expected to persist over the southwest Caribbean. Another surface trough is located over the Yucatan Peninsula with scattered showers. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the basin for the start of next week. The tropical wave associated with the remnants of Nadine is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, the remnants of Nadine (now a tropical wave) and the tropical waves along 34W and 55W. A stationary front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N70W to 26N80W. Scattered showers prevail about 300 nm ahead of the front. To the east, a surface trough is analyzed north of La Mona Passage from 24N65W to 21N67W. The trough is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico to 23N between 60W- 66W. Farther east, a surface trough extends south of Leslie from 29N19W to 26N27W. A 1025 mb high is centered near 34N37W, leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 43W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA