000 AXNT20 KNHC 130558 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 158 AM EDT Sat Oct 13 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Leslie is centered near 35.5N 18.5W at 13/0600 UTC or 490 nm WSW of Lisbon, Portugal, or about 175 nm NNW of Madeira Island moving ENE at 31 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Madeira Island. A fast motion toward the east-northeast is expected to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island this morning, approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula today, and move inland over portions of Portugal and Spain tonight and Sunday. Leslie is expected to transition into a hurricane-force post- tropical cyclone later today. Weakening is forecast after Leslie moves inland over the Iberian Peninsula tonight, and the post- tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate by Monday. Numerous moderate convection extends outward to 180 nm from the center in the eastern semicircle and to 60 nm in the northwest quadrant. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Interests in Portugal and Spain should monitor the progress of Leslie. Additional information on this system can be found in products from the Portuguese Institute for Sea and Atmosphere at www.ipma.pt. Interests in Spain should refer to products from the State Meteorological Agency at www.aemet.es. Nadine has weakened to a tropical wave and the final advisory has been issued. At 13/0300 UTC, the remnant of Nadine is near 16.0N 39.5W UTC or 880 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving W at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Nadine will continue westward as a tropical wave, and redevelopment is not expected. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 15N- 19N between 35W-38W. See the final NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave that had previously been analyzed along 55W has been repositioned along 54W from 07N-20N based on satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Movement is westward at 5-10 kt. A slight maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. Scattered showers are noted from 10N-18N between the wave axis and 48W. Isolated showers extend to 120 nm west of the wave axis from 15N-18N. A new tropical wave will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis. The wave axis is approximately along 34/35W from 02N-11N moving westward. The remnants of Nadine will also be analyzed as a tropical wave on the 0600 UTC map. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic from the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and extends to 10N19W to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 05N32W to 07N43W to 06N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 22W-28W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen within 210 nm north and 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 29W-37W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from near Marco Island, Florida to 23N88W to 23N91W, then becomes stationary at 23N91W to to the coast of Mexico near 24N98W. No significant convection is currently occurring with the front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms cover the eastern Bay of Campeche from 19N-21N between 90W-92W. Drier air is north of the front. The front is currently weakening, and it will continue to weaken and wash out as it drifts slowly southward through Saturday. High pressure is now building in over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Mon night, but will stall across the western Gulf through Wed night. Behind the front, expect fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas, with near gale force winds likely along the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough extends from 25N65W to Haiti to Jamaica. To the southeast of this upper-trough, ample moisture is present along with persistent shower and thunderstorm activity. These showers and thunderstorms are affecting eastern portions of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms extend across the eastern Caribbean from the coast of Venezuela to Puerto Rico between 63W-70W. A Central American Gyre has formed in the southwest Caribbean. GOES-16 Total Precipitable water clear shows large scale rotation associated with the gyre. A surface trough is analyzed through the developing gyre from 18N79W to 13N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 10N-18N between 70W-84W, although little to no showers are occuring north of 15N and west of 80W. This gyre, or broad low pressure area, will slowly shift W toward central America through early next week. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist over the southwest Caribbean. Another surface trough is located from northwestern Honduras to northern Belize. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over Belize, northern Guatemala and the Yucatan Peninsula. To the south, the monsoon trough extends over the SW Caribbean Sea from 12N73W to 12N80W to the coast of central Nicaragua. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over Nicaragua and waters west of 81W and south of 14N. NE swell from Hurricane Leslie will affect Caribbean passages through tonight. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through tonight. Mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail across the basin for the start of next week. The tropical wave associated with the remnants of Nadine is expected to reach the Lesser Antilles early next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, the remnants of Nadine and the tropical wave along 54W. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 32N72W to near West Palm Beach, Florida. Isolated showers prevail well south and east of the front to about 300 nm ahead of the front, and are occurred near the northwest Bahamas and points northeast of the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed north of Puerto Rico from 25N65W to 21N67W. The trough is helping to enhance showers and thunderstorms over Puerto Rico and from Puerto Rico to 23N between 62W-69W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 32N28W to 30N33W to 31N43W. A surface trough extends from 29N25W to 24N33W. Scattered showers are from 27N-30N between 20W-34W. A 1021 mb high is centered near 30N49W, leading to relatively quiet weather from 25N-32N between 43W-53W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen