000 AXNT20 KNHC 121721 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 121 PM EDT Fri Oct 12 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Leslie centered near 33.0N 28.0W at 12/1500 UTC or 300 nm S of the Azores moving ENE at 28 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. The government of Portugal has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for Madeira Island. A fast east- northeastward motion is expected to continue through Saturday morning, followed by a slower eastward motion late Saturday through Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Leslie will pass north of Madeira Island on Saturday, and approach the southwestern portion of the Iberian Peninsula on Sunday, and move inland over portions of the Iberian Peninsula late Sunday. Some gradual weakening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and Leslie could transition into a post-tropical low by late Saturday/early Sunday. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 31N-36N between 24W-29W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 16.0N 36.2W at 12/1500 UTC or 690 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving WNW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. A west- northwestward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through the weekend. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Nadine is expected to dissipate by Sunday. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 15N-21N between 31W-36W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 53W from 07N-21N based on the satellite imagery and observations, moving west at around 5-10 kt. Maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. At this time, scattered showers are near the wave axis from 11N-14N between 48W-55W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N14W to 08N18W. The ITCZ extends from 08N18W to 05N33W to 10N51W. Aside from the convection related to Nadine and the tropical wave, scattered showers are noted within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 22W-31W. GULF OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the basin from 28N83W to 23N88W to 24N98W, then becomes stationary across northeastern Mexico. Scattered showers are along the front mainly west of 90W. This front will continue moving southeast reaching S Florida by Saturday. Scatterometer data depicts gentle to moderate northerly winds north of the front while light to gentle southerly winds prevail south of the front. To the southwest, scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche and southern Mexico mainly south of 23N and west of 96W. A surface trough extends from 23N97W to 19N95W. CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level low is over the W Caribbean near 17N81W with trough extending diagonally west of 75W. A surface trough extends from 19N87W to 16N86W. A Central American Gyre is developing in the southwest Caribbean enhancing convection east of 82W. Another surface trough extends from 17N78W to 14N78W. To the south, the monsoon trough extends along 12N between 73W-83W with scattered moderate convection. To the east, a diffluent flow aloft prevails over the northeast Caribbean enhancing convection across the waters south of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through the weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical Storm Nadine, and the tropical wave along 53W. Michael has transitioned into an extratropical cyclone. A cold front extends across the west Atlantic from 31N75W to 29N81W. Scattered to numerous showers prevail across and south of the front from 25N-31N between 70W-78W. To the east, a 1019 mb high is centered near 30N52W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA