000 AXNT20 KNHC 111159 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 759 AM EDT Thu Oct 11 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Michael centered near 33.5N 82.5W at 11/0900 UTC or 30 nm W of Augusta Georgia moving NE at 18 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move northeastward across the southeastern United States through late tonight, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast by early Friday. Michael is forecast to re-strengthen some Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post- tropical cyclone on Friday. A Storm Surge Warning is in effect from Ocracoke Inlet to Duck North Carolina. Presently, scattered moderate to strong convection is north of 30N between 79W-85W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT4/WTNT34 KNHC for more details. Hurricane Leslie centered near 28.4N 40.1W at 11/0900 UTC or 870 nm SW of the Azores moving ENE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. A ENE general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected over the next few days. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours, with weakening forecast over the weekend. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N-32N between 36W-42W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 14.1N 33.3W at 11/0900 UTC or 520 nm W of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A NW motion is anticipated during the next day or so. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-18N between 27W-33W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W from 05N-19N, moving west around 10-15 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted between 54W-56W. There is no convection near the wave axis. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W S of 18N to Panama and the EPAC, moving slowly west at 5 kt. Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates enhanced moisture in the wave's environment. Scattered showers prevail south of 16N between 72W-80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from W Africa near 11N15W to 05N19W, then resumes from 11N35W to 12N52W. The ITCZ extends from 10N55W to 10N62W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, scattered showers are noted within 200 nm on either side of the monsoon trough mainly east of 20W. GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. Michael is inland over Georgia. Refer to the section above for details. Conditions will continue to improve today across the eastern Gulf. At this time, a line of scattered moderate convection prevails over South Florida and extends west into the southeast Gulf east of 83W between 23N-27N. To the northwest, a cold front is just off the Texas coast moving SE. The front will extend from the Florida Panhandle to west-central Gulf by early Sat. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico S of 22N. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the west-central Caribbean S of Jamaica with convection E of the axis. Refer to the section above for details. An upper level low is over the W Caribbean near 15N81W. An upper level high is over the E Caribbean near 12N68W. Upper level moisture covers the entire Caribbean. Expect moderate tradewinds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages through Friday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine. A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 33N64W. Another 1016 mb high is over the E Atlantic near 25N27W An upper level low is centered N of the Leeward Islands near 22N64W with strong subsidence. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa/ERA