000 AXNT20 KNHC 110002 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 802 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Michael centered near 30.9N 85.1W at 10/2100 UTC or 30 nm W of Bainbridge Georgia moving NNE at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. A turn toward the northeast is expected this evening or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday through Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Michael will move across southeastern Alabama and southwestern Georgia through this evening. Michael will then move northeastward across the southeastern United States through Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on late Thursday night and Friday. Michael is a dangerous category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States through Thursday. Michael is forecast to strengthen Thursday night and Friday when it moves off the east coast of the United States and becomes a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Presently, numerous strong convection is within 90 nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 27N-35N between 82W-88W to include the NE Gulf of Mexico. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Hurricane Leslie centered near 27.8N 41.9W at 10/2100 UTC or 960 nm SW of the Azores moving E at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. A faster motion toward the east-northeast will likely begin by tomorrow, and this general motion should continue through the early weekend. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 25N-30N between 38W-43W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Tropical Storm Nadine centered near 13.1N 32.2W at 10/2100 UTC or 460 nm WSW of the Southernmost Cabo Verde Islands moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A NW motion is anticipated during the next day or so. A turn toward the west- northwest or west is forecast to occur on Friday. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Nadine is forecast to degenerate into a trough of low pressure over the weekend. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 12N-15N between 29W-33W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W from 07N-19N moving west around 10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted east of the wave axis near 48W. There is no convection near the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N extending southward through Panama into the East Pacific to 06N. Movement is westward around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough axis is depicted by model analysis along 76W oriented NNE-SSW over the Caribbean Sea. Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates enhanced moisture is located over the Caribbean between 71W-80W. West of 73W, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-18N between 73W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 15N17W to 12N26W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Tropical Storm Nadine near 11N36W to 10N42W to 12N48W. The ITCZ extends from 09N54W to 10N61W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, numerous strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 08N-12N between 13W-16W. Widely scattered moderate convection is just E of the Windward Islands from 11N-13N between 57W-60W. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Michael is inland over SW Georgia. Convection over the NE Gulf persists. Storm surge warnings are still in effect over portions of the Florida Panhandle. Conditions will gradually improve over tonight. A cold front is inland over E Texas moving SE. The front will push into the NW Gulf tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west- central Gulf by early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level anticylonic flow covers the Caribbean between 65W-74W. Outside of the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section west of 73W, scattered moderate convection is noted from the coast of Venezuela to the south coast of Hispaniola between 63W-73W. Isolated showers are noted over portions of the Leeward Islands and vicinity. The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will improve steadily today as Hurricane Michael moves inland over the Florida panhandle. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages Thu and Fri. Another broad area of low pressure is expected to develop across the W central Caribbean along 79W-80W Fri through Sat and drift slowly WNW through Sun. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, and Tropical Storm Nadine. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the southeast and central Bahamas. Similar activity is possible over Hispaniola through the rest of the afternoon. A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie from 23N42W to 21W49W. No significant showers are occurring with the trough. A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 33N11W to 30N11W to 27N17W. No significant shower activity is noted with the trough. A surface high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is currently leading to quiet weather north of 22N between 52W-72W. A weak 1015 mb surface high near 24N32W is creating quiet weather currently from 21N-30N between 20W-36W. http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa