000 AXNT20 KNHC 101800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Wed Oct 10 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Michael is centered at 10/1800 UTC at 30.0N 85.5W, or about 5 nm NW of Mexico Beach, FL, or about 15 nm SE of Panama City, Florida. Michael is moving NNE, or 20 degrees at 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 919 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Numerous moderate convection is within 180 nm of the center, except only 150 nm in the SW quadrant. The eye is clear on Doppler radar as well as on visible and infrared satellite imagery. The eye diameter is 20 to 25 nautical miles. The eyewall is coming ashore right now along the coast of the Florida Panhandle near Mexico Beach. A life- threatening storm surge and extreme hurricane force winds have already moved onshore. Hurricane force winds will continue to push inland through the afternoon. Everyone in the hurricane warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast should continue to hunker down in their current location. Hurricane force winds will extend well inland across sections of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama this afternoon into tonight. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and the Big Bend region into sections of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southeast Virginia. It is likely that tropical storm conditions will affect parts of the southeast U.S.A. coast from northeastern Florida through North Carolina, and tropical storm watches and warnings are in effect for these areas. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for MICHAEL are available via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Hurricane Leslie is centered near 27.8N 42.3W as of 10/1500 UTC, or about 985 nm SW of the Azores. Leslie is moving SSE, or 150 degrees at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and 90 nm in the southwest quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. A slow turn toward the east-northeast is expected today, followed by a faster east- northeast motion from tomorrow through the early weekend. Slow strengthening is forecast during the next day or two, but weakening should begin by Friday. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are available via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Tropical Storm Nadine is centered near 12.6N 31.6W as of 10/1500 UTC. Nadine is moving NW, or 325 degrees at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. The maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm of the center in the eastern semicircle and 60 nm of the center in the western semicircle. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen extending well northeast from the center. A northwest to north-northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur on Friday. Little change in strength is anticipated today, with weakening likely by tomorrow. Nadine is forecast to dissipate over the weekend. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT35 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT5. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for NADINE are available via the WMO header WTNT25 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT5. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 07N-19N moving west around 10 kt. A maximum in Total Precipitable Water is noted with the wave. A 700 mb trough is noted east of the wave axis near 48W. There is no shower activity near the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N extending southward through Panama into the East Pacific to 06N. Movement is westward around 10 kt. A 700 mb trough axis is depicted by model analysis along 76W oriented NNE-SSW over the Caribbean Sea. Total Precipitable Water imagery indicates enhanced moisture is located over the Caribbean between 71W-80W. West of 73W, scattered moderate convection is occurring from 11N-18N between 73W-78W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the northern coastal sections of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 12N23W. The monsoon trough resumes west of Tropical Storm Nadine near 11N35W to 09N41W to 11N47W. The ITCZ extends from 09N53W to 09N60W. Other than the convection mentioned above associated with Nadine, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 01N-09N between 14W- 29W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also seen from 07N-13N between 35W-37W. Additional scattered showers are from 11N-17N between 37W-45W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 10N-13N between 56W-61W including over Trinidad. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Michael is near 30.0N 85.5W at 2 PM EDT moving NNE at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Michael is making landfall now along the coast of the central panhandle of Florida near Mexico Beach. Michael will move quickly to the NNE and NE over the next 24 hours. Conditions will gradually improve in the NE Gulf Thu through Fri, as Michael moves quickly towards the Cape Hatteras and Tidewater areas. A weak cold front is analyzed over the northwest Gulf of Mexico from 30N93W to 27N98W. Isolated showers are noted near the front. A stronger cold front is pushing eastward over central and eastern Texas, and will likely overrun the weaker front over the next day or two. The stronger front will push into the NW Gulf tonight and Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to west- central Gulf by early Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper-level anticylonic flow covers the Caribbean between 65W-74W. Outside of the convection mentioned above in the Tropical Waves section west of 73W, scattered moderate convection is noted from the coast of Venezuela to the south coast of Hispaniola between 63W-73W. Isolated showers are noted over portions of the Leeward Islands and vicinity. The atmospheric conditions across the NW Caribbean Sea will improve steadily today as Hurricane Michael moves inland over the Florida panhandle. Expect moderate trade winds to prevail across the eastern Caribbean Sea through Friday. Moderate NE swell from Hurricane Leslie will move through the Atlantic waters and Caribbean passages Thu and Fri. Another broad area of low pressure is expected to develop across the W central Caribbean along 79W-80W Fri through Sat and drift slowly WNW through Sun. Environmental conditions are expected to support gradual development and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly westward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features and Tropical Waves sections above for information on Hurricane Leslie, Tropical Storm Nadine and the tropical wave along 51W. Hurricane Michael is currently making landfall in the Florida panhandle this afternoon. Michael is forecast to turn northeast and accelerate toward the Cape Hatteras area. Squalls and tropical storm force winds on the southeast side of Michael could spread into the forecast area north of 29N and west of 79W late tonight or Thursday. An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the Windward Passage, just off the coast of SE Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over the southeast and central Bahamas. Similar activity is possible over Hispaniola through the rest of the afternoon. A surface trough is to the south of Hurricane Leslie from 23N42W to 21W49W. No significant showers are occurring with the trough. A surface trough extends from a 1006 mb low pressure center that is near 33N11W to 30N11W to 27N17W. No significant shower activity is noted with the trough. A surface high pressure ridge over the western Atlantic is currently leading to quiet weather north of 22N between 52W-72W. A weak 1015 mb surface high near 24N32W is creating quiet weather currently from 21N-30N between 20W-36W. http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen