000 AXNT20 KNHC 100003 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 803 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Hurricane Michael at 10/0000 UTC is near 26.6N 86.5W, or about 410 km S of Panama City in Florida, or about 375 km SSW of Apalachicola in Florida. MICHAEL is moving N, or 350 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 953 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 105 knots with gusts to 130 knots. Michael continues to become better organized as presently as an eye feature has become visible in latest satellite imagery. The imagery shows numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered strong convection is elsewhere within 120 nm in the northern semicircle, 90 nm in the SW quadrant and within 30 nm in the SE quadrant. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane within the next 12 hours. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along parts of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. A hurricane warning is in effect for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life- threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. On the current NHC forecast track, the center of Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico through tonight. The center of Michael is then expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and Thu, and move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States by Fri. Damaging winds will extend inland across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael approaches those area and moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life- threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into sections of Georgia and South Carolina. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba through today. The Public Advisories for Michael are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The Forecast/Advisories for Michael are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 09/2100 UTC is near 30.3N 43.0W. LESLIE is moving SSE, or 155 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 60 knots with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 120 nm SE and NW quadrants, and 60 nm SW quadrant. Leslie is forecast to acquire a slower motion toward the south- southeast over the next day or so, with a turn toward the east- northeast or northeast forecast by Wed. Leslie is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane on Wednesday. The Public Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. The center of Tropical Storm Nadine at 09/2100 UTC is near 10.9N 30.6W. NADINE is moving WNW, or 300 degrees, 07 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 270 nm southeast quadrant, 420 nm southwest quadrant and 330 nm northwest quadrant. Nadine is forecast to turn to the NW tonight and that general motion should continue Wed through Fri. Continued strengthening is expected through Wed, with a weakening trend beginning by early Thursday. Nadine is then forecast to weaken to a tropical depression on Friday. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 47W from 04N to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 08-17N between 42W-50W. The wave corresponds nicely with a 700 mb trough, as depicted by model analyses. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery depicts a broad moisture maximum associated with the tropical wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has axis is along 74W from the coast of Colombia to 20N, moving westward around 15 kt. Model analyses depict a 700 mb trough associated with the wave. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum with the tropical wave. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is over and just north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is seen south of 13N to the coast of Panama and Colombia between the wave axis and 80W. Another area of scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to the coast of the Dominican Republic between 69W-72W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also occurring over the Dominican Republic, with isolated showers over Haiti. This convection is also being enhanced by an area of upper-level diffluence just northeast of Hispaniola. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions west Africa near the Senegal/Mauritania border near 16N16W to 12N26W. It resumes to the west of Tropical Storm Nadine at a position of 08N36W to 08N40W. The ITCZ axis begins at 10N49W and continues to 10N57W. In addition to convection associated with Tropical Storm Nadine, scattered moderate convection is seen within 150 nm north of the ITCZ west of 56W. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Michael near 26.0N 86.4W 960 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Michael expected to continue to gradually intensify and move to near 27.6N 86.6W tonight, reach near 29.7N 85.9W Wed afternoon, and then veer NE and inland across the Florida Panhandle mid Wed afternoon. Conditions will gradually improve Thu through Fri as Michael accelerates off to the NE. A cold front will spill into the NW Gulf behind the exiting Michael late Wed through Thu and reach from the Florida Panhandle to SW Gulf Sat evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Michael near 26.0N 86.4W 960 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt across the east central Gulf of Mexico. Conditions across the NW Caribbean to the south of Michael will gradually improve through Wed morning. Expect moderate trades to prevail across the Tropical Atlc and east half of Caribbean through Fri, before another broad low pressure center develops across the W central Caribbean Fri through Sat. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the southeastern Caribbean Sea, while upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the west central Caribbean Sea. Expect moderate trade winds across the east half of the Caribbean Sea through Friday. Another broad low pressure center will develop across the W central Caribbean Sea from Friday through Saturday. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Upperlevel cyclonic flow is over the southeast Bahamas and north coast of Hispaniola while upper-level anticyclonic flow is located from 26N-31N between 70W-76W. An area of upper-level diffluence is noted from 21N-25N between 66W-71W. A surface trough extends from 30N75W to 25N76W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 22N-26N between 68W-74W. Most of this activity is occurring to the northeast and east of the southeast Bahamas. A separate area of scattered showers and thunderstorms is noted east of northern Florida from 28N-31W between 73W-81W. The surface trough is forecast to move west-northwest across the northwest Bahamas today and tonight, then weaken as it approaches S Florida Wed. A surface trough is to the south of Leslie from 29N44W to 24N50W. Little to no shower activity is noted with the trough. An upper- level trough axis passes through 29N28W to 23N40W to 20N51W and 19N59W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 17N- 20N between 55W-61W. A 1008 mb low is near 32N16W. A surface trough extends from the low near 31N18W to 26N24W. Isolated showers are noted north of 27N east of 15W. A 1017 mb surface high is located near 24N36W, leading to quiet weather from 20N-28N between 29W-38W. Hurricane Michael near 26.0N 86.4W 960 mb at 5 PM EDT moving N at 10 kt across the east central Gulf of Mexico. Maximum sustained winds 105 kt gusts 130 kt. Michael will move inland and weaken to a tropical storm across the Floridan Panhandle late Wed afternoon, and veer NE and accelerate parallel to the SE U.S. coast Thu and Fri. Otherwise, a trough will continue to move NW across the NW Bahamas this evening, and inland across NE Florida early tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds and high seas will accompany the trough through tonight then slowly improve across NW part of the area through Wednesday. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ss/ja/mt