000 AXNT20 KNHC 091219 CCA TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 Corrected Atlantic Ocean section Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Michael is centered near 24.5N 86.1W at 09/1200 UTC or 345 nm S of Panama City in Florida, or about 320 nm S of Apalachicola, Florida moving NNW, or 345 degrees 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 968mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 60 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants. Scattered strong convection is elsewhere within 90 nm of the center, except 120 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection composes an outer rainband within 60 nm of a line from 22N85W to 24N84W to 25.5N84.5W, and another one within 30 nm of a line from 26N87W to 24N88W. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane in about 24 hours or so. Life-threatening storm surge is likely along parts of the coasts of the Florida Panhandle, in the Florida Big Bend, and Nature Coast, and a storm surge warning is in effect for these areas. Residents in these areas should follow all advice given by their local officials. A hurricane warning has been issued for parts of the Florida Gulf Coast, and everyone in these areas should prepare for life-threatening winds associated with the core of Michael. Damaging winds also will extend inland across parts of the Florida Panhandle, southern Georgia, and southeast Alabama as Michael moves inland. It is possible that heavy rainfall from Michael may produce life-threatening flash flooding from the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend region into sections of Georgia and South Carolina. Hurricane conditions will continue in parts of western Cuba through this evening, where a hurricane warning is in effect. Michael is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding in parts of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. The Public Advisories for Michael are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The Forecast/Advisories for Michael are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 32.2N 43.9W at 09/0900 UTC or about 900 nm WSW of the Azores moving SSE, or 155 degrees at 11 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 55 knots with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Leslie is forecast to acquire a slower motion toward the southeast over the next day or two, with a turn toward the east-northeast forecast for Thu. Leslie is forecast to reach minimal hurricane force by early afternoon on Wed near 28.1N 42.0W, and intensify slightly through late Thu night into early Fri. The Public Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. The far eastern tropical Atlantic low pressure was upgraded to Tropical Depression Fifteen at 1000 UTC this morning. AT 1000 UTC it was located near 10.3N 29.7W moving WNW or 285 degrees at 10 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows scattered strong convection within 180 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and also from 07N to 10N between 24W and 26W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The depression is forecast to turn to the NW tonight and that general motion should continue on Wed through Thu. The depression is forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm by tonight. See latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 45W from 04N to 19N, moving westward near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave from 10N to 14N between 40W and 44W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 180 nm west of the wave from 13N to 17N. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has axis is along 72W south of 19N, moving westward at 13 kt. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is to the north of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm west of the wave south of 13N to inland Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of Mauritania near 17N16W to 16N20W to near 11N28W. It resumes to the west of recently formed Tropical Depression Fifteen at a position of 09N31W to 08N39W. The ITCZ axis begins at 11N46W and continues to 09N57W. In addition to convection associated with Tropical Depression Fifteen, scattered strong convection is seen within 60 nm either side of the trough between 31W and 35W. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Michael is the main feature in the basin. See Special Features above for details on Michael. Otherwise, a narrow upper level trough extends from the area that is near the Yucatan Channel, northwestward, to SE Louisiana. An upper level ridge is to the east of the trough, and an upper level ridge is to the west of the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... In the wake of Hurricane Michael, strong south to southwest winds along with seas of 9 to 13 ft will linger in the Yucatan Channel through mid-day before subsiding to 7 to 10 ft in the afternoon. Seas elsewhere N of 18N and W of 85W are in the 6 to 8 ft and will continue through today. Outer rainbands from Michael are bringing scattered squalls and thunderstorms to portions of western Cuba. This activity will gradually lift northward into the southern Gulf of Mexico through late this afternoon. This activity is likely to continue to induce very heavy rainfall along with isolated amounts of 12 inches over the portions of western Cuba it affects. This may lead to life-threatening flash floods. Expect moderate trades across the rest of the Caribbean Sea, diminishing toward the weekend as the surface pressure gradient weakens even more. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 67W eastward, associated with the Atlantic Ocean 19N51W to 12N55W trough. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers much of the rest of the Caribbean Sea, between 67W and 81W, and away from the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea with Hurricane Michael. ATLANTIC OCEAN...Corrected An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is near 22N71W. A surface extends from 29.5N73W to 24N74W. A small upper-level low is near 26N73W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection within 270 nm east of the trough from 20N to 24N. Scattered moderate convection is from 27N to 29N between 72W and 79W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere west of about 68W. The surface trough is forecast to move across west-northwest across the Bahamas today and tonight, then weaken as it approaches S Florida Wed. An upper-level trough passes through 30N27W to 24N44W to 19N51W and 12N55W. Upper-level cyclonic wind flow is within 180 nm to 240 nm on either side of the trough from 45W eastward, and within 660 nm on either side of the trough elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are south of 20N west of 55W. An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is about 280 nm to the west of Morocco. A 1010 mb low is about 80 nm to the WSW of the Madeira Archipelago. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center to 28N21W and to near 25N23W. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 30N to 34N between 10W and 16W. A surface trough is along a position from near 29N45W to 26N48W to 24N53W. This trough is to the south of the broad surface cyclonic wind flow that is associated with Leslie. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the trough. Hurricane Michael near 24.5N 86.1W 968 mb at 8 AM EDT moving NNW at 10 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Michael will move to 25.7N 86.3W this afternoon, 27.9N 86.4W Wed morning, 29.9N 85.6W Wed afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.3N 83.4W Thu morning, and inland to 36.5N 75.5W Fri morning. Michael will become extratropical as it moves to 42.5N 60.5W early Sat, and continue to 49.0N 40.5W Sun. Otherwise and elsewhere, expect moderate trades, diminishing towards the weekend as the pressure gradient slackens even more. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT/Aguirre