000 AXNT20 KNHC 081805 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 PM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1745 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently upgraded Hurricane Michael is centered near 21.7N 85.1W at 08/1800 UTC, or about 120 nm ENE of Cozumel, Mexico, or 50 nm S of the western tip of Cuba moving N of 10 degrees at 06 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 978 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Satellite imagery shows that the cloud and convective structure of Michael continues to improve. The upper-level outflow is also increasing over all quadrants of Michael as noted by the fanning outward of the cirrus clouds. The satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE and SE quadrants. Scattered strong convection is elsewhere within 120 mm of the center in the NE quadrant, and within 60 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 18N to 23N between 81W and 84W, including western Cuba. Similar activity is along the coast of western Cuba west of 83W, and spreads northward to over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico near 25N. Scattered moderate convection is quickly spreading northward over much of the eastern Gulf of Mexico north of 23N and E of 86W. Latest NHC forecast has Michael is forecast to increase its northward motion through Tue night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. On this forecast track, the center of Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night, is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and Thu. Michael is forecast to become a major hurricane by Tue or Tue night. Very heavy rainfall is forecast over western Cuba, with maximum isolated amounts of 12 inches, possibly leading to life- threatening flash floods and mudslides. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are also possible in the Florida panhandle and Big Bend region into the Carolinas. The Public Advisories are under WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. Tropical Storm Leslie is north of the area near 34.6N 47.0W at 08/1500 or about 900 nm ENE of Bermuda, or 985 nm W of the Azores moving ESE, or 120 degrees at 12 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Latest satellite imagery shows banding features wrapping around the center mainly in the eastern semicircle, with some evidence of the bands wrapping attempting to wrap around in the western semicircle. The bands consists of the scattered moderate isolated strong type intensity from 33N to 35N, and within 60 nm of the center in the S quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 35N to 37N between 44W and 47W, and in an outer rainband within 30 nm either side of a line from 33N42W to 35N42W to 36N44W. Leslie is forecast to maintain its east to southeast to southeast motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected for the next several days as it begins to strengthen once again this afternoon or tonight. The latest NHC forecast has Leslie becoming a minimal hurricane near 29.5N 37.0W at 12 UTC on Thu. The Public Advisories are under WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories are under WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. A 1010 mb low is over the far eastern Atlantic near 09N26W. The low is along a tropical wave axis that is along 26W from 03N to 15N. This system is roughly located several hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate isolated strong convection becoming organized with time from 06N to 13N between 24W and 31W. This system has a medium potential to form into a tropical depression during next few days while it moves west-northwestward. However, by late this week, strong upper- level winds are expected to become unfavorable for development. See latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATWOAT/ABNT20 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 41W from 04N to 18N. A 1011 mb low is along the wave near 12N41W. This system is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the low in the NE quadrant, but is being sheared by strong southwest winds aloft. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave that earlier was over the eastern Caribbean was analyzed near 70W as depicted by model diagnostic guidance. It is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are east of the wave from 15N to 18N within 60 nm either side of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis passes through the coastal regions of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W to 10N22W to the Special Features 1010 mb low at 09N26W and to 08N35W. The ITCZ axis extends from the 1011 mb low near 12N41W, that is associated with the tropical wave along 26W, to 09N49W and to 08.5N56W. Outside from convection associated with the Special Features tropical wave along 26W and with the tropical wave along 41W, scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm south of the monsoon trough between 31W and 35W. Scattered moderate convection is also over the far eastern Atlantic from 03N to 09N between 15W and 21W, and just inland the coast of Africa from 04N to 06N. GULF OF MEXICO... Hurricane Michael is over the far northwestern Caribbean Sea, moving northward at 06 kt. Michael is forecast to continue to increase its northward motion through Tue night, followed by a northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. On this forecast track, the center of Michael will pass near the western tip of Cuba within the next couple of hours and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico by tonight. Michael will move across the eastern Gulf of Mexico Tue and Tue night, is expected to move inland over the Florida Panhandle or Florida Big Bend area on Wed, and then move northeastward across the southeastern United States Wed night and Thu. Expect for scattered to numerous strong convection, with strong strong gusty winds outside the radii of tropical storm force winds, to increase along and near the track of Michael. Tropical storm conditions are expected across the remainder of the warning areas in Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula later today. An upper-level trough is squeezed between two ridges, passing through the coastal border area of Mississippi and Alabama to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. An upper-level ridge is on either side of the trough. The ridge that is to the east of the trough is associated with the upper level anticyclonic outflow that present to the north of Michael. CARIBBEAN SEA... Hurricane Michael is centered near 21.7N 85.1W 978 mb at 2 PM EDT, moving northward at at 06 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 70 knots. See Special Features above for more details on Tropical Storm Michael. An upper-level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N72W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 600 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center in the E semicircle. A surface trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 32N22W to 30N22W to 28N35W to 30N31W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 30 nm of a line from 32N15W to 29N22W to 28N25W. A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola tonight, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force wind speeds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore N Florida mid- week as the storm moves NE to the north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Aguirre