000 AXNT20 KNHC 080559 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 159 AM EDT Mon Oct 8 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Michael at 08/0600 UTC is near 20.1N 85.5W, or about 155 km ESE of Cozumel in Mexico, or about 210 km SSW of the western tip of Cuba. MICHAEL is moving N, or 360 degrees, 04 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Broad cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea N of 15N and W of 80W. One area of scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of Honduras, from 84W to Belize. A second area of scattered to numerous strong rainshowers is within 200 nm to the south of NW Cuba between 80W and 86W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are in the Gulf of Mexico from 87W eastward, including in the Straits of Florida. Broken to overcast multilayered clouds and other rainshowers are elsewhere to the west of the line that runs from the coast of the Dominican Republic along 70W, to the coast of Costa Rica along 10N. The rainfall amounts will increase with time, in the Gulf of Mexico, as MICHAEL moves northward more and more. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 08/0300 UTC is near 35.7N 49.1W. Leslie is moving ESE, or 110 degrees, 11 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 45 knots with gusts to 55 knots. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant and in the SW quadrant. Surface low pressure covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N northward between 42W and 58W. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 20N northward between 30W and 50W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 23W/24W from 14N southward. This wave was re-positioned slightly based on long- loop satellite imagery. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 04N to 13N between 22W and 30W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W from 17N southward. This wave was re-positioned slightly based on long-loop satellite imagery. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are from 08N to 16N between 34W and 43W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W from 18N southward. Scattered moderate to strong rainshowers are from 11N to 14N between 60W and 63W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that runs from 10N to 20N between 60W and 70W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal regions of Guinea- Bissau near 12N15W, to 10N22W, to 07N30W, and 07N35W. The ITCZ is along 13N43W 11N54W 11N60W. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the area that runs from 09N to 15N between Africa and 20W. It is most probable that this precipitation is accompanying the next tropical wave. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are from 08N to 11N between 48W and 52W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... T.S. MICHAEL is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. MICHAEL is forecast to move northward during the next 2 to 3 days, through the eastern sections of the Gulf of Mexico, and toward the NE corner of the Gulf of Mexico. Expect periods of comparatively heavier rainfall amounts along and near the path of MICHAEL during the next 2 to 3 days. An upper level trough is squeezed between two ridges, passing through the coastal border area of Mississippi and Alabama to the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico. An upper level ridge is on either side of the trough. The ridge that is to the east of the trough is associated with the upper level anticyclonic outflow that is to the north of T.S. MICHAEL. Tropical Storm Michael near 20.0N 85.4W 997 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Michael will move to 21.1N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 85.6W Mon evening, 24.4N 86.0W Tue morning, 26.3N 86.1W Tue evening, and inland to 30.4N 84.5W Wed evening. Michael will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 34.9N 78.4W late Thu, and become extratropical as it moves to 40.7N 64.4W Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Storm Michael near 20.0N 85.4W 997 mb at 11 PM EDT moving N at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Michael will move to 21.1N 85.3W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 22.7N 85.6W Mon evening, 24.4N 86.0W Tue morning, 26.3N 86.1W Tue evening, and inland to 30.4N 84.5W Wed evening. Michael will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over 34.9N 78.4W late Thu, and become extratropical as it moves to 40.7N 64.4W Fri. An upper level NE-to-SW oriented ridge extends from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. A second east-to-west oriented ridge is along 14N/15N between 63W and 74W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N72W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are within 600 nm of the upper level cyclonic circulation center in the E semicircle. A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure center that is near 32N23W, to 30N22W 27N22W, and 23N23W. Isolated moderate rainshowers cover the area that runs from 27N northward between 13W and 30W. A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola tonight, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas. Tropical storm-force wind speeds from Tropical Storm Michael may clip the waters offshore N Florida mid- week as the storm moves NE to the north of the area. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT