000 AXNT20 KNHC 071204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sun Oct 7 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 07/0900 UTC is near 37.2N 52.0W. Leslie is moving E, or 095 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is present in the NE quadrant within 120 nm. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. The center of newly formed Tropical Depression Fourteen at 07/0900 UTC is near 18.6N 86.9W. The depression is moving NNW, or 340 degrees, 03 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. The maximum sustained wind speed is 30 knots with gusts to 40 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 15N northward from 80W westward. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 16N to 20N between 84W and 87W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 15N to 21N between 82W and 87W. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 03N20W to 15N20W, moving W between 10 and 15 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found within an area bounded by 10N18W to 04N18W to 07N28W to 10N18W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave has an axis from 04N37W to 18N37W, moving W around 10 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is taking place from 07N to 09N between 36W and 38W and from 11N to 15N between 35W and 38W are from 10N to 16N between 30W and 40W. A tropical wave entering eastern part of the Caribbean has an axis from 05N61W to 18N61W, moving W around 20 kt. TPW satellite imagery indicates this wave is embedded in a region of deep moisture. Despite this, there is no significant convection currently associated with this feature. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends SW from Guinea on the coast of Africa near 10N14W to 05N25W to 09N35W. The ITCZ continues from 11N38W to 09N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is located from 06N to 09N between 22W and 27W and from 09N to 12N between 42W and 55W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is centered just off the coast of Louisiana near 28N91W. Upper level divergence is enhancing scattered moderare and isolated strong convection over the SE Gulf. Tropical Depression Fourteen near 18.6N 86.9W 1004 mb at 5 AM EDT moving NNW at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt gusts 40 kt. This system will be a significant weather maker for the eastern Gulf Mon through Thu. Fourteen will strengthen to a tropical storm near 19.4N 86.7W this afternoon, move to 20.8N 86.4W Mon morning, 22.3N 86.6W Mon afternoon, 23.9N 87.1W Tue morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 27.6N 87.3W Wed morning. Fourteen will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 32.0N 84.0W early Thu, then continue to near 37.0N 76.0W Fri. CARIBBEAN SEA... Tropical Depression Fourteen is centered in the NW corner of the basin near 18.6N 86.9W at 07/0900 UTC. This system will move through the Straits of Yucatan Mon and allow winds and seas over the NW Caribbean to decrease Tue. An E-to-W/NE-to-SW oriented ridge covers most of the rest of the area, and is suppression convection away from the depression. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 25N70W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow is within 300 nm of the center in the S quadrant, and within 240 nm of the center elsewhere. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 480 nm to 660 nm of the upper level center position in the SE quadrant. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 480 nm of the center in the SE quadrant. A 1008 mb low pressure center is near 31N24W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are from 30N to 32N between 26W and 28W. A surface ridge will prevail across the area during the entire period. A surface trough will develop to the north of Hispaniola on Sunday night, and it will drift west-northwest across the Bahamas through Monday night. The surface pressure gradient between this trough and the ridge will support fresh to strong winds to the northeast of the northern Bahamas. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ McElroy