000 AXNT20 KNHC 070005 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Leslie at 06/2100 UTC is near 37.4N 54.5W. Leslie is moving E, or 100 degrees, 10 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the center in the E semicircle. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmiteed via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LESLIE are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. The center of POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN 06/2100 UTC is near 18.0N 86.6W. The 1006 mb low pressure center is moving NW, or 325 degrees, 05 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 25 knots with gusts to 35 knots. Broad large-scale cyclonic wind flow covers the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward from 80W westward. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 15N in Honduras to 18N in the Yucatan Peninsula between 86W in Honduras and 90W in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate to widely scattered strong rainshowers cover the area that is from 17N to Cuba between 81W and 86W, in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT34 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT4. The FORECAST/ADVISORIES are being transmitted via the WMO header WTNT24 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT4. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is off the coast of W Africa along 18W from 03N- 17N, moving west at 10 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Surface observations also depict the wave axis. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 03N-12N between 12W-24W. A tropical wave is along 40W from 03N-16N, moving west at 15 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Widely scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-14N between 32W-40W. A tropical wave is along 57W from 06N-18N moving west at 10-15 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 08N-12N between 46W-57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 10N13W to 06N20W to 08N30W to 08N3W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 09N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered showers are within 120 nm of the ITCZ between 41W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N83W. Surface ridging is producing 10-15 kt E to SE winds over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered showers are noted over the NW Gulf, and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over W Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula, moving N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near 28N91W. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend, however, convection will advect N from the NW Caribbean to the SE Gulf for the next several days. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22 between 60W-80W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 15N-18N between 72W-75W. Expect active convection to persist across the central and western Caribbean during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into the southern Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See above. T.S. Leslie is also described in Special Features section. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N23W to 22N33W. Scattered showers are within 180 nm east of the trough axis mainly north of 26N. Another surface trough is N of the Canary Islands from 31N10W to 29N16W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of this trough. In the upper levels, a small upper level low is centered E of the Bahamas near 26N69W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is enhancing the convection over the Leeward Islands. A large upper level low is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N27W. Upper level diffluence E of this center is enhancing the showers over the Canary Islands. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ MT