000 AXNT20 KNHC 061204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 37.2N 56.4W at 06/0900 UTC or 510 nm NE of Bermuda moving NE at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A faster motion toward the east and east- southeast is expected through the middle of next week, taking Leslie across the central and eastern Atlantic. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is well NE of the center from 38N-41N between 49W-57W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC,or, under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC, for more details. A large cyclonic gyre across the NW Caribbean is centered near the NE coast of Honduras near 17N76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is over most of the NW Caribbean north of 14N west of 80W. Environmental conditions are expected to become gradually moreconducive for further development, and a tropical depression is expected to form over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico over the weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly north-northwestward at about 5 mph. Interests in the Yucatan peninsula and western Cuba should monitor the progress of this system during the next several days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains to portions of Central America, the Yucatan peninsula, and western Cuba into next week. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 36W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10-15 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 07N-11N between 30W-36W. A tropical wave is along 53W from 06N-18N moving west at 10 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is E of the wave axis from 07N-15N between 44W-54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N20W to 09N30W to 09N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 08N52W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of W Africa from 01N-09N between 10W-22W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1020 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 32N77W. Surface ridging extends W from the high to E Texas along 30N producing 10-15 kt E to SE winds. Scattered showers are over the NW Gulf. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Gulf near 28N89W. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend, however, moisture will start to advect N from the NW Caribbean to the SE Gulf this evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over the central Caribbean from 13N-17N between 67W-72W. Expect active convection to persist across the central and western Caribbean during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into the southern Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See above. T.S. Leslie is also described in Special Features section. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 21N40W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of the trough axis mainly north of 26N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa