000 AXNT20 KNHC 060555 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Oct 6 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 36.2N 58.1W at 0300 UTC, about 455 nm NE of Bermuda moving ENE at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Eastward motion is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast. Leslie remains a large tropical cyclone, with tropical storm winds extending outward up to 290 miles from the center. Numerous moderate convection is within 75 nm of the center, and scattered moderate isolated strong convection is well east of the center from 32N-40N. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. A large cyclonic gyre across the NW Caribbean is centered near the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed over most of the NW Caribbean north of 14N west of 80W. A tropical depression may form by late this weekend or early next week in the NW Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico. This disturbance will bring heavy rain to a large portion of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W from 03N-16N, moving west at 10 kt. GOES-16 TPW imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-14N between 33W-40W. A tropical wave is along 52W from 06N-18N moving west at 10 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-14N between 44W-51W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 08N13W to 06N18W to 09N29W to 09N34W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to the northeast coast of Venezuela near 06N53W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 13W-23W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Showers are moving westward over the central Gulf from a surface trough along 91W. A weak surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 18N92W with few showers. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. Expect active convection to persist across the central and western Caribbean during the slow drift of the cyclonic gyre into the southern Gulf of Mexico. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See above. TS Leslie is also described in Special Features section. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N24W to 21N40W. Scattered showers are within 150 nm east of the trough axis mainly north of 26N. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell