000 AXNT20 KNHC 060000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 36.2N 58.4W at 2100 UTC or 405 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNE at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A turn to the east is expected during the next 24 hours, followed by a turn toward the east-southeast. Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical storm winds extending outward up to 290 miles from the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the center from 35N- 39N between 53W-60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the center from 31N-34N between 57W-64W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC for more details. A large cyclonic gyre over the western Caribbean centered near the NE coast of Honduras. A surface trough extends from 21N84W to the gyre low center to 09N82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 12N-19N between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is over the Gulf of Honduras from 15N- 18N between 85W-89W. A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward. This disturbance will bring heavy rain to a large portion of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 36W from 03N-16N, moving west at 15 kt. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-14N between 25W-35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also E of the wave axis from 05N-12N between 24W-30W. A tropical wave is along 54W from 05N-18N moving west at 15-20 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 43W-57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 09N53W, then continues west of a tropical wave to the northeast coast of Venezuela. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-06N between 05W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 13N- 15N between 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers are moving westward over the eastern Gulf from 25N-28N between 87W-90W due to a surface trough that extends from 29N89W to 24N89W, moving W. A surface trough is over the western Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 18N92W with few showers. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered along the coast of Georgia near 31N81W. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre is over the NW Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of N Venezuela including the ABC islands from 11N-16N between 67W-72W, the remnants of a tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving westward across the Atlantic. See above. TS Leslie is also described in Special Features section. A 1020 high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N81W producing fair weather. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N25W to 24N37W. Scattered showers are from 23N-27N between 27W-32W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Mundell