000 AXNT20 KNHC 051800 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 36.2N 58.4W at 05/1500 UTC or 400 nm NE of Bermuda moving NNW at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. A turn toward the north and a decrease in forward speed are expected later today, and a turn toward the east and east-southeast is expected on Saturday. A slight weakening is forecast during the next few days. Leslie remains a large tropical storm, with tropical-storm-forcewinds extending outward up to 290 miles (465 km) from the center. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the center from 35N- 39N between 53W-60W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of the center from 31N-34N between 57W-64W. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. A large cyclonic gyre is over the western Caribbean centered just off the NE coast of Honduras near 16N84W. A surface trough extends from 21N84W to the center to 09N82W. Scattered moderate to numerous strong convection is from 12N-19N between 77W-83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is over the Gulf of Honduras from 15N-18N between 85W-89W. A tropical depression could form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the next few days. There is a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical is along 34W from 03N-16N, moving westward at 15 kt. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave also has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N-14N between 25W-35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also E of the wave axis from 05N- 12N between 24W-30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 51W/52W from 05N-18N moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N-13N between 43W-57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 12N17W to 08N32W. The ITCZ extends from 08N36W to 08N51W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 09N54W to the coast of northeast Venezuela near 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate convection is along the coast of W Africa from 03N-06N between 05W-14W. Scattered moderate convection is also from 13N- 15N between 41W-44W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers are moving westward over the eastern Gulf from 25N-28N between 87W-90W due to a surface trough that extends from 29N87W to 24N87W, moving W. A surface trough is over the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 18N92W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the trough. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered along the coast of Georgia near 31N81W. Of note in the upper levels, an east to west trough axis is along 24N across the Gulf. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre is over the western Caribbean. See above. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is along the coast of N Venezuela to include the ABC islands from 11N-16N between 67W-72W, due to the remnants of a tropical wave. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the northern Caribbean from 18N-22N between 60W-78W. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See above for details. Leslie is also described in the Special Features section above. A 1020 high is centered over the W Atlantic near 31N81W producing fair weather. A surface trough is over the E Atlantic from 31N25W to 24N37W. Scattered showers are from 23N-27N between 27W-32W. In the upper levels, an upper level low is centered over the central Atlantic near 29N62W. Upper level diffluence E of the center is producing a line of convection from 32N47W to 23N58W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa