000 AXNT20 KNHC 050528 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 128 AM EDT Fri Oct 5 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 34.9N 57.6W at 05/0300 UTC or 390 nm ENE of Bermuda moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed north of 32N between 52W-67W. A northward motion with an increase in forward speed overnight. A reduction in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie turning toward the east- southeast over the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 31W from 04N-17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 240 nm of the wave axis from 06N-14N. GOES-16 Total Precipitable Water imagery shows a moisture maximum surrounding the wave. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as depicted by model analyses. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 49W from 06N-17N moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are occurring along the wave axis and extending to 180 nm east of the wave axis from 08N- 10N. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 70W from 09N-19N, moving westward around 10 kt. The wave is becoming diffuse as it gets closer to the gyre that has developed over the central/west Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the wave enhanced by upper level diffluence prevailing across the central Caribbean west of the wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 18N16W to 10N22W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 09N47W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 09N51W to the coast of northeast Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted along and south of the monsoon trough between 23W-29W and along the ITCZ between 50W-56W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... Scattered showers are moving westward over the eastern Gulf from 24N-27N between 83W-85W along a surface trough that extends along 83W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a pair of 1018 mb highs centered over southeast CONUS. Expect surface ridging to prevail over the forecast area through the weekend. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A large cyclonic gyre, also known as a Central America Gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure that covers Central America and the western Caribbean. Within this gyre, a surface trough is analyzed from 20N81W to a 1006 mb low near 15N83W to 11N84W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the central Caribbean between 70W-83W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend or early next week as the system drifts northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean and the southern Gulf of Mexico. A mid to upper level trough extending over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northwestward over the next several days. As a result, heavy rainfall is likely to spread over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America Friday through early next week. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will continue to pass through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the end of the week before subsiding. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles. See above for details. Leslie is described in the Special Features section above. An E-W surface trough is analyzed to the east of Leslie from 31N29W to 27N41W. Scattered showers are seen south of this trough from 25N-28N and east of 31W. Enhanced moisture from the tropical wave along 49W is streaming northeastward between an upper-level trough to the northwest and an upper-level ridge to the southeast. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA