222 AXNT20 KNHC 041204 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 804 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Leslie is centered near 31.4N 57.1W at 04/0900 UTC or 400 nm E of Bermuda moving N at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends outward to 270 nm north and northwest of the center. Elsewhere scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm of the center. A northward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. A reduction in speed is forecast on Friday and Friday night, with Leslie accelerating toward the east or east-southeast over the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 27W from 02N-14N, moving westward around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-07N between 30W-33W, with another area of scattered moderate convection from 06N-09N between 21W-24W. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows deep moisture surrounding the wave. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 46W from 05N-15N moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered showers are occurring along and in the vicinity of the wave's axis between 40W-48W. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 66/67W from 08N-19N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is not producing any significant convection due to an area of mid-level ridging and sinking air that prevails across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N29W to 08N44W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 07N48W to the coast of northeast Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered showers and thunderstorms are observed well north of the ITCZ from 12N-16N between 33W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough continues over the north-central Gulf waters along 90W between 25N-29N. Shower activity has diminished with this feature, and there are now only isolated showers occurring along and east of the trough axis. Enhanced moisture associated with this trough is seen on GOES-16 TPW imagery. Isolated showers are noted over the Bay of Campeche and adjacent land areas near Veracruz. Weak surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with little shower activity. Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A broad surface trough is over the western Caribbean, analyzed from 20N78W to a 1008 mb low near 15N81W to 12N82W. This trough and low are part of a large cyclonic gyre, defined by a broad area of low pressure, which covers portions of Central America and the western Caribbean. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate and scattered strong convection just east of the trough axis from 12N-17N between 76W- 81W. Scattered showers and storms are noted elsewhere from 11N-18N between 74W-84W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend or early next week as the system drifts northwestward. A mid to upper level trough extending over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northwestward as the week progresses. As a result, heavy rainfall is likely to spread over portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America this weekend into early next week. Large NNE swell generated from Hurricane Leslie will continue to pass through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean through the end of the week before subsiding. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are described in the Tropical Waves section above. Hurricane Leslie is described in the Special Features section above. A weak surface trough located between the NW Bahamas and South Florida is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the NW Bahamas. This activity should continue today as it moves westward. The trough is likely to enhance showers and thunderstorms over South Florida today. Another surface trough is located south of Hurricane Leslie from 26N60W to 21N68W. No significant convection is noted near the trough at this time. An E-W surface trough is analyzed to the east of Hurricane Leslie from 29N43W to 31N33W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen south of this trough from 26N-30N between 30W-40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA/Hagen