191 AXNT20 KNHC 040522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Leslie centered near 29.9N 56.9W at 03/2100 UTC or 430 nm ESE of Bermuda moving N at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Little motion is expected for the next several hours. A northward motion is forecast to begin this evening, and this motion with an increase in forward speed should continue through Friday night. A turn to the east is expected this weekend. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, but a slow weakening trend is expected to begin on Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 26W from 03N-14N, moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm on either side of the wave's axis mainly south of 10N. Total Precipitable Water imagery shows deep moisture surrounding the wave. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 44W from 05N-14N moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are occurring along and in the vicinity of the wave's axis between 40-48W. The wave has an associated 700 mb trough, as shown by model analyses. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 64W from 08N-18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A TPW animation shows moderate moisture in the wave's environment. The wave is not producing any significant convection due to an area of mid-level ridging and sinking air that prevails across the eastern Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of west Africa near 11N15W to 10N25W. The ITCZ extends from 06N27W to 07N43W, then continues west of a tropical wave from 07N47W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered showers are observed within 150 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-32W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough continues over the north-central Gulf waters along 89W between 26N-29N with scattered showers. Enhanced moisture associated with this trough is seen on GOES-16 TPW imagery. Scattered showers are entering the Bay of Campeche from the Yucatan Peninsula. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin with little to no shower activity. Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details. A broad surface trough is over the western Caribbean, analyzed from 20N78W to a 1007 mb low near 17N81W to 13N82W. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection prevailing across the western Caribbean mainly west of 75W. Some slow development of this system is possible this weekend while the low drifts across the northwestern Caribbean. A mid to upper level trough extending over the Bahamas and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northward as the week progresses. As a result, heavy rainfall is likely to spread over sections of Hispaniola and Jamaica later this week and into the weekend. Large NNE swells generated from Leslie will continue to move through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean during the next few days. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves over the tropical Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles are described in the Tropical Waves section above. Hurricane Leslie is described in the Special Features section above. An area of upper-level diffluence just east of the central Bahamas is causing scattered showers and thunderstorms from 25N-27N between 73W-76W. This activity could continue in this area through the night. An E-W surface trough is analyzed to the east of Hurricane Leslie from 29N45W to 30N33W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and south of this trough mainly north of to 25N between 34W-41W. Surface ridging prevails over the eastern Atlantic, leading to quiet weather from 19N-27N east of 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA