084 AXNT20 KNHC 030522 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 122 AM EDT Wed Oct 3 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 29.7N 56.7W at 03/0300 UTC or 440 nm ESE of Bermuda moving SW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 175 nm of the center. Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Wednesday. A turn to the the north is expected to begin late Wednesday and should continue through early Friday. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis along 20W from 03N-15N, moving westward 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 150 nm west of the wave's axis. The wave coincides with a maximum in total column water vapor as depicted in the GOES-16 TPW product. The wave has a 700 mb trough associated with it, as shown by model analyses. A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis along 62W from 06N-18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A well-defined 700 mb trough is shown in model analyses just east of where the wave is analyzed, but lacks significant convection. A TPW animation shows a moisture maximum is associated with this tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 11N15W to 07N24W to 10N37W. The ITCZ extends from 10N37W to 09N60W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section above, scattered showers are observed within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 35W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface trough is analyzed over the northeastern Gulf along 88W from 27N-30N. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough mainly north of 27N and east of 88W. This trough, along with increasing moisture in the northeastern Gulf, will continue enhancing convection overnight. Another trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N97W to 20N95W with scattered showers. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next few days. A surface trough will develop each evening over the Yucatan Peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean. Refer to the section above for details. A broad surface trough along 81W is associated with a broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection prevailing between 70W-86W. This convection is enhanced by an area of upper-level diffluence. Some gradual development of the broad low pressure area is possible late this week and this weekend while the low drifts generally in a northward direction. A deepening mid to upper level trough over the northern Caribbean and Greater Antilles will help advect moisture northward as the week progresses. As a result, heavy rain is likely to spread over sections of Hispaniola and Jamaica later this week and into the weekend. Broad mid-level ridging is over the east Caribbean with associated westerly upper level flow leading to generally quiet weather conditions east of 70W. Large NNE swell generated from Leslie will pass through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean waters. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A tropical wave is moving over the tropical Atlantic and is described in the Tropical Waves section above. Tropical Storm Leslie is described in the Special Features section above. A broad mid to upper-level trough over Leslie combined with an area of upper-level diffluence to the southeast of the system continues to enhance convection from 24N-30N between 39W-51W. The eastern portion of the forecast area is under the influence of a surface ridge, anchored by a 1019 mb surface high near 26N34W. Generally quiet weather prevails north of 20N and east of 40W. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ ERA