156 AXNT20 KNHC 011757 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 157 PM EDT Mon Oct 1 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie is centered near 33.2N 54.3W at 01/1500 UTC or 535 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north and northeast of the center, with weaker convection elsewhere within 180 nm of the center. A slow southwestward or southward motion is forecast during the next few days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Leslie is forecast to become a hurricane on Tuesday. The Public Advisories for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 42W from 02N-14N, moving W around 20 kt. The southern portion of the wave has a 700 mb trough associated with it. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are from 08N-10N between 41W-45W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 56W from 05N-17N, moving W at 10-15 kt. The wave has a well defined 700 mb trough associated with it. The GOES-16 TPW imagery also shows a moist area around the wave axis. Isolated showers are seen from 15N-16N between 53W-54W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 13N17W, to 10N25W to 08N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to the coast of French Guiana near 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 90 nm north and 180 nm south of the monsoon trough between 21W-28W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough oriented NNE-SSW is over E Texas. Upper level diffluence E of this feature covers much of the central and northeast Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is noted off the coast of Texas from 26N-30N west of 93W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are also occurring from 27N-29N between 85W-87W. At the surface, east winds of 10-15 kt cover most of the Gulf. Expect ridging to prevail over the forecast area during the next few days. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level troughing extends over much of Cuba and the northwest Caribbean Sea. Scattered showers are over the Yucatan Channel and the Windward passage. Broad upper level ridging is over the central and eastern Caribbean with westerly upper level flow, leading to fair weather east of 70W. A surface trough over the central Caribbean Sea has been nearly stationary along 76W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 12N-16N between 72W-82W. The trough will remain nearly stationary or perhaps move very slowly toward the western Caribbean over the next several days. A large cyclonic gyre is expected to develop over this area by Friday. A large NNE swell generated from Leslie will continue to move through the Atlantic passages into the Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A remnant cloud line from a front that dissipated during the last 24 hours is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms off the east coast of north-central FL and north of the northwest Bahamas. Broad surface cyclonic wind flow covers the central Atlantic within a large distance surrounding Tropical Storm Leslie. In between Leslie and a mid-level high near 17N33W, numerous moderate convection is being generated from 25N-30N between 41W-47W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are occurring elsewhere from 22N-28N between 47W and the coast of north-central Florida, to the north and east of the Bahamas. A tropical wave still over west Africa is producing an area of scattered moderate convection offshore from 03N-08N between 12W- 17W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is also occurring over Sierra Leone and Guinea. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Hagen