874 AXNT20 KNHC 010000 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Sep 30 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Leslie centered near 33.5N 53.2W at 30/2100 UTC or 590 nm E of Bermuda moving WSW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 31N-35N between 50W-53W. The Public Advisories for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3. The Forecast/Advisories for Leslie are transmitted via the WMO header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 35W/36W from 16N southward, moving W at 15-20 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 08N-11N between 35W-41W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 18N southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of the wave axis. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is E of the wave axis from 14N-20N between 69W-75W. Similar convection is W of the wave axis from 12N-16N between 77W-83W. A SW Gulf of Mexico tropical wave is along 96W from 20N southward, moving W at 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is over the Bay of Campeche and S Mexico from 16N-22N between 94W-98W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal near 14N17W, to 10N25W to 06N34W. The ITCZ is along 06N36W 04N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N-13N between 21W-27W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level trough is digging through Texas from the east central sections into northern and north central sections of Mexico. A separate surface trough is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico from 20N to 23N about 90 nm to the NNE of the coast of Mexico. Scattered to numerous strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coast of Louisiana between 91W and 94W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are within 120 nm of the coasts of Texas and Mexico from 23N to 28N. Much of the Gulf of Mexico from 29N southward, and from 89W westward, is covered by upper level cyclonic wind flow. This same area of upper level cyclonic wind flow also covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Surface high pressure will prevail in the forecast area. A surface trough will develop each evening in the Yucatan peninsula. The trough will move into the SW Gulf of Mexico overnight, where it will dissipate each morning. Moderate to fresh winds will accompany the trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward, and the Caribbean Sea to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 75W and 84W, between the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. Isolated moderate rainshowers are to the NW of the line that runs from Hispaniola to eastern Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds will persist in the central and eastern sections of the Caribbean Sea through Tuesday morning. Gentle to moderate winds will dominate the entire basin during the remainder of the period. A surface low pressure center is forecast to develop off the coast of Nicaragua on Thursday, and it is expected to track NNE to the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea next weekend. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is along 31N/32N from 62W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers cover the waters from 29N northward from 62W westward. Surface cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 24N northward between 43W and 64W. This cyclonic wind flow is associated with Tropical Storm Leslie. Isolated moderate rainshowers are from 24N northward between 47W and 63W. Other widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rainshowers are just to the east, from 20N northward between 35W and 47W. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 68W westward. Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong rainshowers are in the Straits of Florida between 75W and 84W, between the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine $$ Formosa